International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

Chapter 1
World energy demand and economic outlook
Overview
In the IEO2011 Reference case, world energy consumption increases by 53 percent, from 505 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 770 quadrillion
Btu in 2035 (Table 1). In the near term, the effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 curtailed world energy consumption. 8 As nations
recover from the downturn, however, world energy demand rebounds in the Reference case and increases strongly as a result of robust
economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries. OECD member countries are, for the most part, more
advanced energy consumers. 9 Energy demand in the OECD economies grows slowly over the projection period, at an average annual rate
of 0.6 percent, whereas energy consumption in the non-OECD emerging economies expands by an average of 2.3 percent per year.
The global recovery from the 2008-2009 worldwide economic recession continues to advance, but the recovery remains uneven.
In advanced economies, recovery is slow in comparison with recoveries from past recessions. Unemployment still is high among
the advanced economies, and real estate markets and household income growth remain weak. Concerns about fiscal sustainability
and financial turbulence means that advanced economies may not achieve the higher growth seen in past recoveries. In many
emerging economies, growth remains high, in part driven by strong capital inflows and high commodity prices. Inflation pressures
remain a concern, along with the need to rebalance external trade in key emerging economies.
The pace of economic recovery varies among the advanced, OECD nations. While the recession in the United States has officially
ended, 10 recovery has been weaker than recoveries from past recessions. Europe’s economic recovery has lagged even more. Japan’s
recovery had been sluggish before the devastating earthquake of March 11, 2011, and now the timing of economic recovery is more
uncertain. In contrast to the OECD nations, developing non-OECD Asian economies have led the global recovery. The IEO2011 Reference
case assumes that, by 2015, most nations of the world will have resumed their expected rates of long-term growth before the recession.
World GDP rises by an average of 3.4 percent per year from 2008 to 2035 in the Reference case, with non-OECD economies averaging
4.6 percent per year and OECD economies 2.1 percent per year. Future energy consumption will be driven by non-OECD demand.
Whereas energy use in non-OECD nations was 7 percent greater than that in OECD nations in 2008, non-OECD economies consume
38 percent more energy than OECD economies in 2020 in the IEO2011 Reference case and 67 percent more in 2035 (Figure 12).
Two nations that were among the least affected by the worldwide recession are China and India. They continue to lead world
economic growth and energy demand growth in the Reference case. Since 1990, energy consumption in both countries as a share
of total world energy use has increased significantly, and together they accounted for about 10 percent of total world energy
consumption in 1990 and 21 percent in 2008. Although energy demand faltered in many parts of the world during the recession,
robust growth continued in China and India, whose economies expanded by 12.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, in 2009.
U.S. energy consumption declined by 5.3 percent in 2009, and energy use in China is estimated to have surpassed that of the
Table 1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2008-2035 (quadrillion Btu)
Region 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8 The International Monetary Fund (World Energy Outlook 2008, October 2008, p. 43) defines a global recession to be when the world’s annual gross
domestic product (GDP)—on a purchasing power parity basis—increases by less than 3.0 percent. According to IHS Global Insight, world GDP increased
by 2.7 percent in 2008, 0.7 percent in 2009, and 4.6 percent in 2010.
9 For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of September 1, 2010, throughout all the time series included in this report. Israel
became a member on September 7, 2010, and Estonia became a member on December 9, 2010, but neither country’s membership is reflected in IEO2011.
10 The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more
than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” However, the shorthand
version of a recession is often given as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. In September 2010, the National Bureau of Economic
Research declared that the recession which began in the United States in December 2007 had ended in June 2009.
U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011
Average annual
percent change
2008-2035
OECD 244.3 250.4 260.6 269.8 278.7 288.2 0.6
Americas 122.9 126.1 131.0 135.9 141.6 147.7 0.7
Europe 82.2 83.6 86.9 89.7 91.8 93.8 0.5
Asia 39.2 40.7 42.7 44.2 45.4 46.7 0.6
Non-OECD 260.5 323.1 358.9 401.7 442.8 481.6 2.3
Europe and Eurasia 50.5 51.4 52.3 54.0 56.0 58.4 0.5
Asia 137.9 188.1 215.0 246.4 274.3 298.8 2.9
Middle East 25.6 31.0 33.9 37.3 41.3 45.3 2.1
Africa 18.8 21.5 23.6 25.9 28.5 31.4 1.9
Central and South America 27.7 31.0 34.2 38.0 42.6 47.8 2.0
World 504.7 573.5 619.5 671.5 721.5 769.8 1.6
9