International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

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Contents Highlights .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 World energy markets by fuel type ............................................................................................................................................... 1 World delivered energy use by sector ........................................................................................................................................... 5 World carbon dioxide emissions ................................................................................................................................................... 6 World energy demand and economic outlook .................................................................................................................................... 9 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Outlook for world energy consumption by source ......................................................................................................................... 10 Delivered energy consumption by end-use sector ........................................................................................................................ 13 World economic outlook ................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Liquid fuels ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 World oil prices ............................................................................................................................................................................. 25 World liquids consumption ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Recent market trends.................................................................................................................................................................... 29 World liquids production ................................................................................................................................................................ 30 World oil reserves ......................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Natural gas ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 43 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 World natural gas consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 44 World natural gas production ........................................................................................................................................................ 49 World natural gas trade ................................................................................................................................................................. 57 Reserves ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 63 Coal ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 69 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 69 World coal consumption ................................................................................................................................................................ 69 World coal production ................................................................................................................................................................... 73 World coal trade ............................................................................................................................................................................ 74 World coal reserves ...................................................................................................................................................................... 79 Electricity ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Electricity supply by energy source............................................................................................................................................... 86 Regional electricity outlooks ......................................................................................................................................................... 91 Industrial sector energy consumption ................................................................................................................................................. 107 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 107 Energy-intensive industries ........................................................................................................................................................... 109 Regional industrial energy outlooks .............................................................................................................................................. 111 Transportation sector energy consumption ........................................................................................................................................ 119 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 119 OECD countries ............................................................................................................................................................................ 120 Non-OECD Countries ................................................................................................................................................................... 125 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions ........................................................................................................................................... 139 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 139 Emissions by fuel ......................................................................................................................................................................... 139 Emissions by region ...................................................................................................................................................................... 140 Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions........................................................................................................................................... 143 Factors influencing trends in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions ....................................................................................... 143 The Kaya decomposition of emissions trends .............................................................................................................................. 144 Data Sources ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 147 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011 v
Contents Appendixes Tables World energy demand and economic outlook 1. World energy consumption by country grouping, 2008-2035 ................................................................................................... 9 2. World gross domestic product by country grouping, 2008-2035 .............................................................................................. 16 Liquid fuels 3. World liquid fuels production in the Reference case, 2008-2035 ............................................................................................. 26 4. World oil prices in four cases, 2009-2035 ................................................................................................................................ 28 5. World oil reserves by country as of January 1, 2011 ............................................................................................................... 38 Natural gas 6. World natural gas production by region/country in the Reference case, 2008-2035 ............................................................... 50 7. World natural gas reserves by country as of January 1, 2011 ................................................................................................. 64 Coal 8. World coal production by region, 2008-2035 ........................................................................................................................... 73 9. World coal flows by importing and exporting regions, Reference case, 2009, 2020, and 2035 ............................................... 75 10. World recoverable coal reserves as of January 1, 2009 .......................................................................................................... 80 Electricity 11. OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source, 2008-2035 ..................................................................... 86 12. Approaches to nuclear waste management in selected countries ........................................................................................... 90 13. OECD and non-OECD net renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2008-2035 .................................................... 91 Industrial sector energy consumption 14. World industrial delivered energy use by region and energy source, 2008-2035 .................................................................... 107 Transportation sector energy consumption 15. Transportation energy use by region, 2008-2035 .................................................................................................................... 120 16. Tax incentives for hybrid and electric vehicles in OECD Europe, 2010 ................................................................................... 123 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 17. Emissions mitigation goals announced by selected countries ................................................................................................. 142 18. Average annual changes in Kaya decomposition factors, 2008-2035 ..................................................................................... 145 Figures vi A. Reference case projections...................................................................................................................................................... 155 B. High Oil Price case projections ................................................................................................................................................ 173 C. Low Oil Price case projections ................................................................................................................................................. 189 D. Reference case projections by end-use sector and country grouping ..................................................................................... 205 E. Projections of liquid fuels and other petroleum production in five cases.................................................................................. 227 F. Reference case projections for electricity capacity and generation by fuel.............................................................................. 249 G. Reference case projections for natural gas production ............................................................................................................ 273 H. Kaya Identity factor projections ................................................................................................................................................ 279 I. Comparisons with International Energy Agency and IEO2010 projections .............................................................................. 285 J. Models used to generate the IEO2011 projections .................................................................................................................. 289 K. Regional definitions .................................................................................................................................................................. 291 Highlights 1. World energy consumption, 1990-2035 ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. World energy consumption by fuel, 1990-2035 ........................................................................................................................ 2 3. World liquids consumption by sector, 2008-2035 ..................................................................................................................... 2 4. Natural gas production in China, Canada, and the United States, 2008 and 2035 ................................................................. 3 5. World coal consumption by region, 1990-2035 ........................................................................................................................ 3 6. World net electricity generation by fuel type, 2008-2035 ......................................................................................................... 4 7. World nuclear generating capacity, 2008 and 2035 ................................................................................................................. 5 8. World industrial delivered energy consumption, 2008-2035 .................................................................................................... 5 9. World transportation delivered energy consumption, 2008-2035 ............................................................................................. 6 10. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel, 1990-2035 ....................................................................................... 6 11. World carbon dioxide emissions per capita, 1990-2035 .......................................................................................................... 7 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011
Page 2 and 3: Contacts The International Energy O
Page 4 and 5: U.S. Energy Information Administrat
Page 8 and 9: Figures (continued) U.S. Energy Inf
Page 10 and 11: Highlights In the IEO2011 Reference
Page 16 and 17: levels of income and fossil fuel us
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U.S. Energy Information Administrat
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References for natural gas Links cu
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Chapter 4 Coal Overview In the IEO2
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decline substantially over the proj
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demand for steel in both domestic a
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Table 9. World coal flows by import
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Europe, Middle East, and Africa In
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process could impede or delay those
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References for coal Links current a
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Mechel OAO Commences Construction o
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Chapter 5 Electricity Overview In t
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Chapter 6 Industrial sector energy
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References for industrial sector en
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Chapter 7 Transportation sector ene
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Chapter 8 Energy-related carbon dio
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Table 18. Average annual changes in
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Data Sources Links current as of Ju
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Appendix A Reference case projectio
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Table A1. World total primary energ
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Table A2. World total energy consum
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Table A4. World gross domestic prod
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Table A6. World natural gas consump
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Table A8. World nuclear energy cons
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Table A10. World carbon dioxide emi
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Table A12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Table A14. World population by regi
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Appendix B High Oil Price case proj
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Table B1. World total primary energ
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Table B4. World liquids consumption
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Table B6. World coal consumption by
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Table B8. World consumption of hydr
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Table B12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Appendix C Low Oil Price case proje
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Table C1. World total primary energ
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Table C4. World liquids consumption
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Table C6. World coal consumption by
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Table C8. World consumption of hydr
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Table C12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Appendix D Reference case projectio
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Reference case projections by end-u
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Appendix E Projections of liquid fu
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Projections of liquid fuels and oth
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Table E11. World conventional liqui
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Table E14. World conventional liqui
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Appendix F Reference case projectio
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Reference case projections for elec
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Appendix G Reference case projectio
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Table G1. World total natural gas p
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Table G3. World other natural gas p
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Appendix H Kaya Identity factor pro
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Table H1. World population by regio
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Table H3. World energy intensity by
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Appendix I Comparisons with Interna
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Comparisons with International Ener
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Appendix J Models used to generate
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Appendix K Regional definitions The
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International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

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