International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011
Liquid fuels
automobile efficiency standards and government incentives introduced in many nations during the recession, such as the U.S.
“cash for clunkers” program, designed to encourage consumers to trade in older, less efficient cars for newer ones that are more
fuel-efficient. In Japan and OECD Europe, liquids consumption declines by average annual rates of 0.4 percent (0.5 million barrels
per day) and 0.2 percent (0.7 million barrels per day), respectively, from 2008 to 2035.
As a result of the different growth trends for the non-OECD and OECD regions, non-OECD liquids consumption in 2020 exceeds
OECD consumption. The difference widens considerably over time, and in 2035 non-OECD consumption is 23 percent greater than
OECD consumption. Although China’s demand for liquids increases by 3.5 percent per year over the projection, its consumption in
2035 still is 5.0 million barrels per day less than U.S. liquids consumption.
In the Low Oil Price case, non-OECD consumption and OECD consumption are nearly identical, at 57.0 and 56.3 million barrels per
day in 2035, respectively. OECD consumption is higher than in the Reference case, because low prices discourage conservation
and allow consumers to continue to use liquid fuels without economic impact. Most of the increase in OECD consumption in the
Low Oil Price case occurs in the Americas and in Asia.
In contrast to the OECD, non-OECD consumption is 4.8 million barrels per day lower in the Low Oil Price case than in the Reference
Case. In this case, slower growth in demand for liquids among the developing nations keeps world oil prices low—in contrast
to the Traditional Low Oil Price case, where low prices encourage increased consumption worldwide. Although OECD liquids
consumption levels in 2035 are similar in the Low Oil Price and Traditional Low Oil Price cases, non-OECD consumption grows to
a total of 74.4 million barrels per day in 2035 in the Traditional Low Oil Price case—17.4 million barrels per day higher than in the
Low Oil Price case and 12.6 million barrels higher than in the Reference case.
In the High Oil Price case, where high oil prices are a result of strong growth in non-OECD demand for liquids, non-OECD liquids
consumption represents 61 percent of the world total in 2035. China’s consumption of liquids grows by an average of 3.8 percent
per year (from 7.8 million barrels per day in 2008 to 21.2 million barrels per day in 2035), as compared with 3.5 percent per year
in the Reference case. India and the Middle East also increase consumption by an average of more than 2.0 percent per year.
OECD consumption declines slightly through the mid-term and increases only slightly in the longer term, with high world oil prices
encouraging consumers to conserve fuel and turn to alternatives fuels whenever possible. OECD liquid fuel use in the High Oil Price
case remains below the 2008 level of 48.0 million barrels per day through 2035.
Non-OECD demand, which is higher in the High Oil Price case than in the Reference case, provides support for higher world oil
prices. For example, in the High Oil Price case China’s liquids consumption in 2035 is equal to U.S. consumption. In contrast, in
the Traditional High Oil Price case, demand for liquids in all regions is affected only by price, with high prices dampening liquids
demand and encouraging conservation and fuel switching. As a result, liquids consumption in the Traditional High Oil Price case
is lower than in the Reference case in every IEO2011 region. In the Traditional High Oil Price case, non-OECD liquids consumption
totals 59.4 million barrels per day in 2035, as compared with 74.2 million barrels per day in the High Oil Price case and 61.8 million
barrels per day in the Reference case. OECD liquids consumption in 2035 in the Traditional High Oil Price case is almost the same
as in the High Oil Price case.
Recent market trends
In 2010, world oil prices responded primarily to expectations about demand, with producers, consumers, and traders looking
for some indication as to when the world’s economy would recover, what shape the recovery would take, and how strong the
Figure 33. World liquids consumption by sector,
2008-2035 (million barrels per day)
120
80
40
0
86
93
98
103
108
112
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Transportation
Industrial
Buildings
Electric power
Figure 34. World liquids consumption by region and
country group, 2008 and 2035 (million barrels per day)
Non-OECD Asia
OECD Americas
Middle East
Central and South America
Africa
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
OECD Asia
OECD Europe
2008
2035
0 10 20 30 40
29