International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Contacts The International Energy Outlook 2011 was prepared under the general direction of John Conti, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis (john.conti@eia.gov, 202-586-2222), and Paul Holtberg, Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team (paul.holtberg@eia. gov, 202-586-1284). General questions concerning the content of this report may be directed to the Office of Communications (202-586-8800). Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (linda.doman@eia.gov, 202-586-1041) or the following analysts: World energy demand and economic outlook ..................................... Linda E. Doman (linda.doman@eia.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic assumptions .............. Kay A. Smith (kay.smith@eia.gov, 202-586-1132) Liquid fuels ......................................................... James O’Sullivan (james.o’sullivan@eia.gov, 202-586-2738) Production in Brazil ................................. Kenneth R. Vincent (kenneth.vincent@eia.gov, 202-586-6582) Natural gas ......................................................... Justine L. Barden (justine.barden@eia.gov, 202-586-3508) Phyllis D. Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.gov, 202-586-9592) Natural gas prices in Europe ..................... Justine L. Barden (justine.barden@eia.gov, 202-586-3508) Shale gas: Hydraulic fracturing and environmental issues ........ Phillip Budzik (phillip.budzik@eia.gov, 202-586-2847) International shale gas resources .............. Aloulou Fawzi (aloulou.fawzi@eia.gov, 202-586-1344) Coal ...................................................................... Michael L. Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.gov, 202-586-2136) Diane R. Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.gov, 202-586-2415) Electricity ............................................................ Brian T. Murphy (brian.murphy@eia.gov, 202-586-1398) Nuclear waste management ..................... Nancy Slater-Thompson (nancy.slater-thompson@eia.gov, 202-586-9322) Industrial sector ................................................ Peter Gross (peter.gross@eia.gov, 202-586-8822) Transportation sector ..................................... Victoria V. Zaretskaya (victoria.zaretskaya@eia.gov, 202-287-5501) Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions .............................. Gwendolyn Jacobs (gwendolyn.jacobs@eia.gov, 202-586-5847) Diane R. Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.gov, 202-586-2415) The following also contributed to the production of the IEO2011 report: Damien Gaul, Adrian Geagla, Perry Lindstrom, Lauren Mayne, Brooke McLeod, Charles L. Smith, Peggy Wells, and Emre M. Yucel. EIA also wishes to acknowledge the work done by summer intern Trevor Tatum. Electronic access and related reports IEO2011 will be available on the EIA Home Page (www.eia.gov/ieo) by September 19, 2011, including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the entire publication in Portable Document Format (PDF), go to www.eia.gov/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s Office of Communications. Addresses and telephone numbers are as follows: Office of Communications, EI-40 U.S. Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202-586-8800 E-mail: infoctr@eia.gov 24-hour automated information line Website: www.eia.gov FAX: 202-586-0114
Preface The International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO2011) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2035. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2011 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) in April 2011. IEO2011 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO2011 consumption projections are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) 1 and non-members (non-OECD). OECD members are divided into three basic country groupings: OECD Americas (United States, Canada, and Mexico/Chile), OECD Europe, and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand). Non-OECD countries are divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (which includes Russia); non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India); Middle East; Africa; and Central and South America (which includes Brazil). In some instances, the IEO2011 production models have different regional aggregations to reflect important production sources (for example, Middle East OPEC is a key region in the projections for liquids production). Complete regional definitions are listed in Appendix M. IEO2011 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2011 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect as of the start of 2011. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2011 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections. The projections extend through 2035. The demand projections and macroeconomic outlook are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook.” In addition to Reference case projections, IEO2011 includes several scenario cases that are used to estimate the impacts of oil prices and demand on global liquid fuel markets. The impact of alternative supply conditions on the projections is illustrated by the Traditional High and Traditional Low Oil Price cases. In addition, the impact of high and low non-OECD demand (where most of the uncertainty with respect to future energy markets lies) on world liquids markets is captured in the High Price and Low Price cases. All four cases are discussed in Chapter 2, “Liquid Fuels.” The discussion in Chapter 2 includes regional projections of liquids consumption and production (primarily petroleum). Chapters 3 and 4 review regional projections for natural gas and coal energy consumption and production, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—and presents projections of world installed generating capacity. Chapter 6 provides a discussion of industrial sector energy use. Chapter 7 includes a detailed look at the world’s transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 8 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. ii Objectives of the IEO2011 projections The projections in IEO2011 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used for any particular scenario. The Reference case projection is a business-as-usual trend estimate, given known technology and technological and demographic trends. EIA explores the impacts of alternative assumptions in other scenarios with different macroeconomic growth rates and world oil prices. The IEO2011 cases generally assume that current laws and regulations are maintained throughout the projections. Thus, the projections provide policy-neutral baselines that can be used to analyze international energy markets. While energy markets are complex, energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model structures, and assumptions used in their development. Behavioral characteristics are indicative of real-world tendencies, rather than representations of specific outcomes. Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty. Many of the events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty. Key uncertainties in the IEO2011 projections are addressed through alternative cases. EIA has endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and useful as possible. They should, however, serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, a complete and focused analysis of public policy initiatives. 1 OECD includes all members of the organization as of September 1, 2010, throughout all time series included in this report. Israel became a member on September 7, 2010, and Estonia became a member on December 9, 2010, but neither country’s membership is reflected in IEO2011. U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011
Page 4 and 5: U.S. Energy Information Administrat
Page 6 and 7: Contents Highlights ...............
Page 8 and 9: Figures (continued) U.S. Energy Inf
Page 10 and 11: Highlights In the IEO2011 Reference
Page 16 and 17: levels of income and fossil fuel us
Page 18 and 19: Chapter 1 World energy demand and e
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Liquid fuels Overview Con
Page 52 and 53:
Chapter 3 Natural gas Overview In t
Page 54 and 55:
U.S. Energy Information Administrat
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
References for natural gas Links cu
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Chapter 4 Coal Overview In the IEO2
Page 80 and 81:
decline substantially over the proj
Page 82 and 83:
demand for steel in both domestic a
Page 84 and 85:
Table 9. World coal flows by import
Page 86 and 87:
Europe, Middle East, and Africa In
Page 88 and 89:
process could impede or delay those
Page 90 and 91:
References for coal Links current a
Page 92 and 93:
Mechel OAO Commences Construction o
Page 94 and 95:
Chapter 5 Electricity Overview In t
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Chapter 6 Industrial sector energy
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
References for industrial sector en
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 7 Transportation sector ene
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Chapter 8 Energy-related carbon dio
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Table 18. Average annual changes in
Page 156 and 157:
Data Sources Links current as of Ju
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Appendix A Reference case projectio
Page 166 and 167:
Table A1. World total primary energ
Page 168 and 169:
Table A2. World total energy consum
Page 170 and 171:
Table A4. World gross domestic prod
Page 172 and 173:
Table A6. World natural gas consump
Page 174 and 175:
Table A8. World nuclear energy cons
Page 176 and 177:
Table A10. World carbon dioxide emi
Page 178 and 179:
Table A12. World carbon dioxide emi
Page 180 and 181:
Table A14. World population by regi
Page 182 and 183:
Appendix B High Oil Price case proj
Page 184 and 185:
Table B1. World total primary energ
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Table B4. World liquids consumption
Page 190 and 191:
Table B6. World coal consumption by
Page 192 and 193:
Table B8. World consumption of hydr
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Table B12. World carbon dioxide emi
Page 198 and 199:
Appendix C Low Oil Price case proje
Page 200 and 201:
Table C1. World total primary energ
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Table C4. World liquids consumption
Page 206 and 207:
Table C6. World coal consumption by
Page 208 and 209:
Table C8. World consumption of hydr
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
Table C12. World carbon dioxide emi
Page 214 and 215:
Appendix D Reference case projectio
Page 216 and 217:
Reference case projections by end-u
Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
Page 224 and 225:
Page 226 and 227:
Page 228 and 229:
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Appendix E Projections of liquid fu
Page 238 and 239:
Projections of liquid fuels and oth
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Table E11. World conventional liqui
Page 254 and 255:
Page 256 and 257:
Table E14. World conventional liqui
Page 258 and 259:
Appendix F Reference case projectio
Page 260 and 261:
Reference case projections for elec
Page 262 and 263:
Page 264 and 265:
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
Page 270 and 271:
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
Page 276 and 277:
Page 278 and 279:
Page 280 and 281:
Page 282 and 283:
Appendix G Reference case projectio
Page 284 and 285:
Table G1. World total natural gas p
Page 286 and 287:
Table G3. World other natural gas p
Page 288 and 289:
Appendix H Kaya Identity factor pro
Page 290 and 291:
Table H1. World population by regio
Page 292 and 293:
Table H3. World energy intensity by
Page 294 and 295:
Appendix I Comparisons with Interna
Page 296 and 297:
Comparisons with International Ener
Page 298 and 299:
Appendix J Models used to generate
Page 300 and 301:
Appendix K Regional definitions The
show all

International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?