@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@e?@@h?@@@@@@h?@@h?@@@@@@h?@@h?@@@@@@h?@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@g@@g@@g@@g@@g@@g@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@?@@?@@?@@?@@?@@?@@?@@@@@@@@?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@e?@@@@@@@@?e@@@@@@@@ ?@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@20AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE JOURNAL NO. <strong>136</strong> MAY/JUNE <strong>1999</strong>THE LOGIC LINK BETWEEN CENTRE OF GRAVITY,DECISIVE POINTS AND ACTIVITIESThird countrysponsorship of terroristsCENTRE OFGRAVITYIncrease DiplomaticCost for SponsorIncrease FinancialCost to SponsorEtcDECISIVEPOINTSMeans*General Assemblymotion*Seeland dip protest*etc*****MeansFigure 4****MeansACTIVITIESThe final step in arriving at the initial strategy is toselect those activities that provide the most effect, thatmanipulate the more important Decisive Points.Economy of effort will also be a consideration here,and some activities may be selected for the fact thatthey impact on more than one Decisive Point. Iftempo is to be established quickly, priority may alsobe given to some activities because of the speed withwhich they can be initiated, even though otheractivities may replace them later.This combination of activities, together with ageneral scheme for their implementation, is the initialstrategy. It will invariably be modified in execution asmore information comes to hand, but allows bothindividuals and the organisation to respond purposelyand with the best chance of avoiding the disruptiveeffects of crisis. Importantly, as the model at Figure 3.shows, each of these stages generates informationrequests, that both help focus intelligence agenciesand facilitate the early validation of the originalassumptions.ConclusionMost studies of the subjects of crisis and strategyhave failed to bridge the gap between theory andpractice. The asymmetry of the concepts complicatesthis necessary step in both cases. However it is thevery fact that both have been described as art notscience, 27 that makes strategy a natural partner forcrisis. Crisis resists order and strategy should never bemore ambitious than to try to use or shape chaos.Instead of seeking to control chaos, it provides theleading idea and trails a central thread around whichcrisis teams can manoeuvre to advantage throughcrisis.National security crises may have lost some of theportent of catastrophe they held in Cold War days, butthe interests and prestige of nations and coalitions stillride on the success with which they are managed. Ifcrisis managers acknowledge from the outset thatcrisis is a competitive bargaining process, and use itsearly hours to establish both a strategic orientationand intent, we will see far more successful outcomes.Hopefully this model will assist in this process.NOTES1. Allan R. Millet & Williamson Murray. “The lessons of war”, inThe National Interest (Winter 1988).2. Coral M. Bell, “Decision-making by governments in crisissituations”, in International Crises and Crisis Management, ed.Daniel Frei, Saxon House, 1978, p. 50.3. Edward Luttwak, “The logic of strategy”, in War, ed. LawrenceFreedman, Oxford University Press, 1994, p. 195.4. For the handling of short notice national security crises, I amusing the term “crisis management” throughout as Snyder andDiesing do to include coercive diplomacy. See: James L.Richardson, “Crisis management: a critical appraisal”, in NewIssues in International Crisis Management, ed. Gilbert R.Winham, Westview Press, Boulder, 1988, pp. 15-16.0
STRATEGY AND CRISIS215. Charles F. Hermann, International Crises: Insights FromBehavioural Research, Free Press, NY, 1972, p. 13.6. James A. Robinson, “Crisis: an appraisal of concepts andtheories”, in Charles F. Hermann (ed.), 1972, p. 33.7. Charles Hermann’s account of laboratory tests of the effects ofheightening these factors appeared to challenge this hypothesis.However even he questioned the validity of the results. See:Charles F. Hermann, “Threat, time, and surprise: a simulationof international crisis”, in International. Crises: Insights FromBehavioural Research, pp. 207-208.8. Hermann and Brady refer to disruptive stress as: “the defectiveoperation of a person’s coping mechanisms – such asmisconception or rigidity in cognitive processing.” See: CharlesF. Hermann, & Linda P. Brady., “Alternative models ofinternational crisis behaviour”, in International Crises: InsightsFrom Behavioural Research., p. 284.9. Ole R. Holsti, “Time, alternatives, and communications: the1914 and Cuban missile crises”, in Charles F. Hermann (ed.),1972, p. 63.10. Charles F. Hermann, “Threat, time, and surprise: a simulationof international crisis”, p. 196.11. Charles F. Hermann & Linda P. Brady, p. 268.12. The effects of crisis on the performance of both organisationsand individuals are discussed in detail in International Crises:Insights From Behavioural Research, edited by Hermann. Seeparticular: James A. Robinson, “Crisis: an appraisal of conceptsand theories”, pp. 33-35; Thomas W. Milburn, “Themanagement of crises”, pp. 263-266; and Charles F. Hermann& Linda P. Brady, pp. 283-90.13. Uriel Rosenthal & Pert Pijnenburg, Crisis Management andDecision-Making Oriented Scenarios, Kulwer AcademicPublishers, Dordecht, 1991, p. 1.14. Ian I. Mitroff & Christine M. Pearson, Crisis Management – ADiagnostic Guide for Improving Your Organisation’s Crisis-Preparedness, Jossey-Bass, San Fransisco, 1993, p. 25.15. Joseph F. Bouchard, Command in Crisis, Columbia UniversityPress, 1991, p. 2.16. As Coral Bell illustrates by the Cyprus crisis in 1974, there areusually more than two major players in a crisis. This has anexponential effect on the considerations and interests that mightbe vying for satisfaction. See: Coral M. Bell, pp. 50-51.17. Michael Howard, “The dimensions of strategy”, in War, ed.Lawrence Freedman, Oxford University Press, 1994, p. 197.18. The Macquarie Concise Dictionary, 2nd edn, 1994, p. 990.19. Edward N. Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace,Bekanap Press Harvard, 1987, p. 70.20. The military hierarchy of strategy has been variously described,but has included:a. The Grand or National Strategic level, where allelements of national power are considered.b. The Military Strategic level, where all the elements ofmilitary power are considered. (Note that anyfunctional area of government could be substitutedhere for the word “military” e.g. foreign affairs, police,or attorney generals; to reflect the strategic level of thatfunction.)c. Theatre Strategic level, where a subordinate HQ hassome strategic responsibilities, usually including intheatrepolitical liaison.21. The need for this vertical separation of responsibility in crisismanagement has also been identified by students of crisis.Legadec describes the two functions as “strategy constructionand implementation”, and emphasises the need to maintain acritical distance between them throughout a crisis. See: PatrickLagadec, Preventing Chaos in Crisis, trans. Jocelyn M. Phelps,McGraw Hill, 1993, p. 184.22. Helmuth Von Moltke, “Doctrines of war”, Lawrence Freedman(ed.), 1994, p. 220.23. Tempo is not speed, but the rate at which decisions are madeand enacted. This has been variously described as a “DecisionCycle or Loop”, and in Lind’s account of decision-making incombat, as an “OODA Loop” (Observe, Orientate, Decide,Action). See: William S. Lind, Maneuver Warfare Handbook,Westview Press, 1985, pp. 5-6.24. J.C. Wylie, Rear Admiral USN, Military Strategy: a GeneralTheory of Power Control, <strong>Australian</strong> Naval Institute Press,Sydney, 1967, p. 110.25. Crisis should not only be seen as a threats, it may provideopportunities to enhance our interests, in ways or areas notnormally available. In fact the Chinese word for crisis meansboth threat and opportunity. See: Thomas W. Milburn, p. 270.26. Purists would argue that there can only be one Centre ofGravity at each level for each protagonist. This generallyapplies in a military strategic analysis, where the solution liesmainly in the application of force. However it is not always sosimple an issue, when considering the broader and more subtleinstruments of national power. Nonetheless it is advantageous,for the focus it provides, to have only one Centre of Gravity ateach level of possible and appropriate.27. For crisis see: Coral M. Bell, p. 51. For strategy see: RobertO’Neil, “An introduction to strategic thinking”, in The Makingof Strategy, Murray, Knox, Bernstein (eds.), CambridgeUniversity Press, 1994, p. 30.Brigadier Jim Wallace graduated into the Royal <strong>Australian</strong> Infantry from the Royal Military College in 1973. He has served in the 8/9thBattalion RAR, and the Special Air Service Regiment which he commanded from 1988 to 1990. He is a graduate of both the British ArmyStaff College and the <strong>Australian</strong> College of <strong>Defence</strong> and Strategic Studies. Brigadier Wallace was Commander Special <strong>Force</strong>s from 1993to 95 and has recently handed over command of 1st Brigade in Darwin to become the Director General of Land Development. He has seenservice in UNTSO in the Middle East and has previously had an article published in the <strong>Journal</strong> of Strategic Studies, London.