Prosperity and Depression.pdf

CHAPTER 7HARVEST THEORIES.AGRICULTURE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE§ I. INTRODUCTIONThe relation between changes in the agriculturalTheories of situation and industrial fluctuations is much moreperiodichar- complicated than many people think. There existvest variation. a good many theories on the subject, which arenot easy to reconcile though all are either based on,or backed by, statistical research. One' group of theories, whichincludes the writings of W. S. ]EVONS,l H. S. ]EVONS,· andH. L. MOORE, 8 seeks to account for the periodicity of businesscycles by establishing the existence of a similar \periodicityin agricultural output. The chain of causation runs from cosmicinfluences to weather conditions, from weather conditions toharvests, and from harvests to general business.The authors of these theories are generally willing to admitthat the effects of weather-induced harvest variations may be1 The Solar Period and the Price 01 Corn, 1875 ; The Periodicity 01Commercial Crises and its Physical Explanation, 1878 ; and CommercialCrises and Sun-spots, I87g-all reprinted in Investigations in Currencyand Finance, 2nd edition"London, 1909.• The Causes 01 Unemployment, The Sun's Heat and Trade Activity,London, 1910; and "Trade Fluctuations and Solar Activity" inContemporary Review, August 1909.• Economic Cycles: their Law and Cause, New York, 1914, and GeneratingEconomic Cycles, New York, 1923.