Prosperity and Depression.pdf

PREFACE TO THE ORIGINAL EDITIONThis book has its origin in a resolution adopted by the Assemblyofthe League ofNations in September 1930 by which itwas decidedthat an attempt should be made to co-ordinate the analytical workthen being done on the problem of the recurrence of periods ofeconomic depression.The literature conc~rning economic depressions and what iscurrently and somewhat loosely described as· the trade cycle isabundant, and the publication of a further book on the theory ofsuch cycles was not the primary object of the enquiry undertakenas a result of this resolution. This book is incidental to the firststep in that enquiry.It is apparent from the persistence with which depressionsoccur, from the gravity of their economic and social effects, andfrom the growing consciousness of that gravity, that-howeverabundant the literature on the subject, however elaborate andspecious the theories-our knowledge ofthe causes of depressionshas not yet reached a stage at which measures can be designed toavert them. This failure of society to control its own destiniesmay be due to one of three causes. It may be due to the fact thatthe causal relationship of events has not up to the present beenascertained; it may be due to the fact that, although the truthhas been discovered and stated, it lies buried and obscured in amass offalse theory; finally, it may be due to the fact that, althoughthe truth is known and recognised, depressions are as inevitablea phenomenon of our present economic structure as famines wereof a more primitive economy which lacked means of transportand of storage.The ultimate object of all enquiries into the occurrence ofdepressions must be to find ways and means to avert depressionsor, if they slre in fact inevitable, to render the structure of society