Prosperity and Depression.pdf

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Chap. 9Mea.rllrement of the CycleGBNBRAL INDICES OF CYCLICAL MOVBMENT IN VARIOUS COUNTRIESFor explanations, see Appendix I. page S09.The principal crises are indicated by arrows.--- - REfERENCE CYCLE CURVE_.-. OTHER GENERAL 8UStNESS CURVES- EMPLOYMENT-- TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONflU.NCr.1882 1000 1907 1&13 1920•1930160 160I"' I" 1401'0 T120-'~I "-.-.. 100.II80T... ,.60+3 ~+2 ~ I.#. ,'-!'to I , 2.,"T 01" "', ~ ~", I I, "' ,.1I",- _. ." 0-1"". ... I".. ~ "7 ..#.. -I-2'-V V ..-2 -3SWt:DlM1901 1913 1920 1930180.- ",.--- .-I' 14010080100., ....;.,0.80-3(l~. 1"', ;.-,• r ~"' "'...~, , ," " .' , 0" I.'U'--.. , ... , I'I' -I~ V ~ ,,-"-2-3..I " . II V I'Ll"'... . , , .'- . .-" -"':1 ~-___A1900~. '"..",. .-... ... .~ ., ~.I I"'._...6 ....-- -'...1910 1920""'
2.68 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part IIin the volume of production as the peculiar response of theeconomic system. lThe continuance of production is materially perfectly possible.The necessary capital equipment is there; so is the labour-power :so are the raw materials and semi-finished products. Yet somehowa large part of the factors of production cannot be put to work;the economic machine does not function smoothly : the pricesystem is out ofequilibrium.§ 4. BASIC FACTS ABOUT THE BUSINESS CYCLEIn any attempt to apply our fundamental criteriaFour phases of prosperity and depression in order to locate andofthe cycle. measure in exact form, over any considerable lengthof time, the phenomenon which is the subject ofour study, we are at once confronted with the difficulty that thestatistical data, especially for the earlier periods,;before the warand in the nineteenth century, are very inadequate. Indices ofnational income and employment (or unemployment) are veryunreliable, and in the case of a number of countries do not existat all. Indices of the volume of production are also far frombeing complete or sufficiently representative.The fluctuations with which we are concerned are, however, somarked and extend over such a wide range of phenomena that itis possible to identify them with a high degree of accuracy on thebasis of the existing·material, even in periods for which the latteris not so complete. We begin with the attempt to determinethe length of the successive periods ofprosperity and depression inthe case of a number of countries by fixing as exactly as possiblethe turning-points from boom to slump and slump to boom. Thewhole cycle is divided into four phases or parts:(I) The upswing (prosperity phase, expansion);1 This is clearly revealed by the fact that external disturbances, suchas a war or an earthquake Jwhich directly obstruct the productive processand destroy wealth, nevertheless frequently tend tq bring about,an expansionrather than a contraction of employment and productjon.
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PROSPERITY AND DEPRESSION
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PROSPERITY AND DEPRESSION was origi
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VIPre/tNtmore apt to meet the shock
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PREFACE TO THE 1939 EDITIONIn prepa
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CONTENTSINTRODUCTION .PART I. SYSTE
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XVIAnalYtical Table ofContentsA. TH
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XVIIIAnalYtical Table 0/· ContmtJc
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xxAna!Jtical Table of Contents§ 6.
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XXIIAna!Jtical Table of ContentsA.
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xxivAnalytical Table of Contents§
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111/rotltiGtiollThe second part of
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CHAPTER 1PRELIMINARY REMARKS§ I. T
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Chap. 1 PreliJl/inary RIll/arks 7Ie
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Chap. I Preliminary Remarks 9It has
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Chap. I Preliminary Remarle.s IIA f
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Chap. IPreliminary Remar!eJNaturall
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Chap-, 2 The PurelY Monetary Theory
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryp
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryp
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Chap. z The PurelY Monetary Theory
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryi
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Chap. 2The PurelY Monetary Theoryco
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Chap. 2The PI/relY Monetary Theorya
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CHAPTER 3THE OVER-INVESTMENT THEORI
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Chap. 3The Over-investment Theories
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Chap. ;The Over-investment Theories
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Chap. 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap~ 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap. ; The Over-:-im;estment Theor
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Chap. 3 The Over-jf/Pestment Theori
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Chap. 3The Over-inve.Jtment Theoric
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Chap. 3The· Over-investlnent Theor
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Chap. 3 T h~·· Over-investment Th
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Chap. 3 The Over-i1l1Jesfmenf Theor
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Chap. 3The Over-int 1 estment Theor
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Chap~ 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap. 3 The O'IJer-investment Theor
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Chap. 3 The Over-illtJ6slmmt Theori
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Chap. 4 Changes in Cost as Cause of
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Chap. 4Changes in Cost as Cause of
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Chap. 4 Changes in Efficiency as Ca
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Chap. 4 Error Theories 113cars is d
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Chap. 4 The Debt-Deflation Theory l
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Chap. 4 Filkllldal Strwtllrl and th
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Chap. ,Under-consumption TheorilsIt
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Chap. S Under-conJllflJption Theori
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Chap. , Under-consumption Theories
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Chap. 5 UnJer-con.r1l111ptiOIl T!Ho
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Chap. 5 Under-consumption Theories
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Chap. ~(( top " ofthe structure ofp
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Chap. 5Under-consumption TheoriesTh
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Chap. S 133maladjustment or an insu
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Chap. SUnder-consumption Theoriesth
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Chap. , Ullder-COll~rIl1lJption 11J
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Chap. 5Under-consumption TheoriesTh
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Clap. ~Under-mullfIJption Theoriesc
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Chap. 6 U Psych%gica/ Theories" 143
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Chap. 6With the introduction of the
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Chap. 6 CC Pfych%gi&aJ TheorieJ " 1
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Chap. 6 149their own moneyJ the rep
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CHAPTER 7HARVEST THEORIES.AGRICULTU
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Chap. 7 Agri~Nihire and the Btisine
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Chap. 7Agriculture and the Business
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Chap. 7Agrie-IIJtNre and the BIIJi"
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Chap. 7Ag,.kuJture and the Business
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Chap. 7 161It is important to consi
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Chap. 7A
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Chap. 7AgriclJlture and the Busines
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Chap. 7Agriculture aIIti the BlIJin
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Chap. 8Recent Discussions on the Tr
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Chap. 8 Recent Discussions on the T
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Chap. 8 Recent DiscUJsion.! on the
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Chap. 8 Reant DisCll.fsions on the
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Chap. 8•{;Recent Discussions on t
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,Chap. 8 '&Bcent Discussions on the
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Chap. 8Recent Discussions on .the T
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Chap. 8 Recent DisCIISsion.s on the
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Chap. 8 Recent Di~rcussions on the
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Chap. 8 H.ece/it DiJcussiofu on the
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Natllre and Causes of the CyclePart
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N atnre and Causes of the ,CyclePar
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Nature and Causes of the CyclePart
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Nature and Callses 0./ the CyclePar
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334 Nature and' Causes of the Cycle
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;;8 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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34° Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and Cau.re.r ~f the Cycle Pa
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344 Natllre and Callses of the Cycl
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Nature and Causes oj. the CyclePart
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Nature and Causes of tht Cycl'Part
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354 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and· Causes of the CyclePar
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Nature and Callses of the C:JclePar
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Nature and Causes of the OclePart I
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392 Natllre and Causes of the Cycle
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394 Nature and Causes of the 0c1e P
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4°2. Nature and Causes of the Cycl
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CHAPTER 12INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF
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Nature and CatlSes of the CyclePart
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410 Nature and Causes 0.1 the Cycle
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4 1 2. Nattire and Causes of the Cy
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418 Nature and Causes of the C;ycle
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42.0 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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42.2. Nature and .Causes of the Cyc
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Nature and Causes ~I the Cycle Part
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Nature and Callses of the CyclePart
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43° Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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o • ANature and CalISe.! of the C
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Nattire and Causes of the C:JclePar
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442. Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and Causes qf'the CyclePart
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Part IIIFURTHER REFLECTIONS ON RECE
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Recent Developments in Trade Cycle
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Recent Dell,Jopm,ntI in TraJ, eycJ,
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Recent Develop"lents in Trade Cycle
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Recent Developmenti in Trade Cycle
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47° Recent Developments in Trade C
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47 2 Recent Developments in Trade C
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474 Recent Developments in Trade Cy
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Recent Developments in, Trade Cycle
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49° Recent Developments in Trade C
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49 2 Recent Developments in Trade C
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soo Recent Developlllel1ts in Trade
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Appendix IDESCRIPTION OF THE INDICE
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Appendix I 5 11Employment.1911- 193
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Appendix IIB. Number of workpeople
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NAME INDEX TO PARTS I AND IIAdams,
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Name Index to Parts I and IIKeynes
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SUB}EC1' INDEX TO PARTS I AND IIAcc
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Subject Index to Parts I and II 5 2
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.. Subject Index to Parts I and IIB
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Subject Index 10 Paris I and IIInve
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Subject Index to Parts I and IIProd
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Subject Index to Parts I and IIWage
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Name and Subject Index to Part IIIK
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