Prosperity and Depression.pdf

xxAna!Jtical Table of Contents§ 6. Static versus Dynamic Tkecwies:. Some M ethotlological Observations ,.General versus partial equilibrium. (247)-Macroscopic versus microscospicanalysis (248)-Static versus dynamic theories (249)-Are e~pectationsa dynamic el~ment ? (252)--Theoretical versus statistical models (253).Part IISYNTHETIC EXPOSITION RELATING TO THE NATURE AND CAUSESOF BUSINESS CYCLESCHAPTER 9,-DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE§ I. lntf'oduction " U Crisis" and U depression" (257).§ 2. Definition of Prosperity and Depression in th, General Sense: A closedeconomy (258)-Altemative criteria (259)-" Employment " criterion (260)-" Consumption" criterion (262)-1' Production" criterion (262)­Conclusion (263)-Other criteria (263).f 3, The Business Cyct. in the General Sens, and in the 1'echntcal S,nse (264).I 4. Basic FlUts about the Business Cycl. : Four phases of the cycle (268)­Various indices recording t.he cycle (269).I S. The Secular Trend: Various components of time-series (27I)-The meaningof the trend in different series (271),§ 6. Business Cycles and Long Waves: Facts about the long waves (273)­Necessity for previous analysis of short waves (273).§ 7. Is a Gene,.al Thecwy of tM Cycle possible; Each cycle an historicalindividual (274)-A general theory possible (275)-Order of the argument(276).I 8. Two Regula, Features ofthe Cycle: Parallelism of production and monetarydemand (277)-8pecla11y wide fluctuations in producers' goods (279).CHAPTER IO.-THE PROCESS OPltXPANSION AND CONTRACTIONI I. Introduction: The problem stated (283).A. THE EXPANSION PROCBSSI 2. General Description of the Mechanism unu,. the A ssump'i,on lhat the,.eare Unemployed Productive Resources: Elasticity of supply (283)-Reciprocalstimulation of investment and consumption (285)-Rise in prices.costs an