Prosperity and Depression.pdf

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Chap. 9Definition of the CyGIIincome in terlllS ofgoods always appears as higher money income,.is a highly significant additional fact which. calls for explanation;and its explanation is almost bound to afford clues to the understandingof the business cycle. 1It would be rash to conclude from the fact that the monetarycirculation (in the sense of MV) rises and falls with the generalmovement of the cycle that money-or rather monetary forces inthe sense ofmonetary policy (i.I., action on the part ofthe monetaryauthorities)-is the impelling cause of the cyclical expansion andcontractiop of production and employment. We shall come backto this point later. At this stage, we cannot·answer the questiondefinitdy; we· must confine ourselves to pointing out that moneymay conceivably playa role of minor importance. It is possiblethat in some, or even in all circumstances it adjusts itselfto changesin production without exerting an active influence.SpeciallYwidejil«tuation.rin protiN&ers'goods.We pass to the second regular feature ofthe cycle,a less self-evident feature-namely, the fact that theproduction of producers' goods fluctuates muchmore violently than the production of consumers'goods. As may be seen from the followinggraphs, this is true in a relative, and in many casesalso in an absolute, sense. If we measure theamplitude of· the cycle either by changes in the total volumeof production or by changes in the total number of unemployedor employed workers, we often· find that the changes in thevolume ofproduction of producers' goods (goods ofhigher order)and changes in the number of unemployed in these industriescontribute more to the change ofthe total than do changes in thevolume of production of consumers' goods and in the number ofworkers employed thereon. Historically speaking~ with theaccumulation of capital) the Rroducers' goods industries havegrown relatively to the consumers' goods industries, till to-daythey are in many countries approaching or outstripping the latterin importance~ as measured, I.g., by the number of workersemployed.in both branches. It may happen,however, in cOWltriesI Mr. R. F. Harrod, in his book, The Trade Cycle (London, 1936), hasalso found it worth while to lay special stress onthis fact.
180 Nature and Causes oj" the Cycle Part IIIPRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT BY GROUPS OF INDTJSTRIES.For explanations, see Appendix II, page ;512.The principal crises are indicated by arrows.PRODUCERS'{- PRODUCTION ••••••••••• jGOODS -=-=-=- EMPLOYMENT =INDUSTRIESCONSUMERS'GOODSINDUSTRIESUNITED $TI\TES OF AMERICI\1882 1890 1900 1907 1913 1920 1929140,--.-----T'T-----"..----,.---r----r-----r-r------n------,I40::~~...====E.&-=====E'+====:;::+:;1;~~~·2~-;,~I.j.~~~-.'~~~!~::"'~:~80 _I •••••• , ,80--_".::~f~~~~i~~~~~~~J~·_·-60.-Lo~. -~. ..... I '. " / 60., \f.401------.-.+'.-••-..-:- ••-•••-:••~••-:>'.:.=o/-.a..~-----+------+------+--1vl-+-~ 4010 ~ 120/. - _ 10080 ,-~..".F "", • 801-------t------.t-~-0#1~-,."-l...,fl6
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PROSPERITY AND DEPRESSION
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PROSPERITY AND DEPRESSION was origi
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VIPre/tNtmore apt to meet the shock
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PREFACE TO THE 1939 EDITIONIn prepa
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CONTENTSINTRODUCTION .PART I. SYSTE
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XVIAnalYtical Table ofContentsA. TH
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XVIIIAnalYtical Table 0/· ContmtJc
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xxAna!Jtical Table of Contents§ 6.
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XXIIAna!Jtical Table of ContentsA.
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xxivAnalytical Table of Contents§
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111/rotltiGtiollThe second part of
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CHAPTER 1PRELIMINARY REMARKS§ I. T
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Chap. 1 PreliJl/inary RIll/arks 7Ie
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Chap. I Preliminary Remarks 9It has
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Chap. I Preliminary Remarle.s IIA f
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Chap. IPreliminary Remar!eJNaturall
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Chap-, 2 The PurelY Monetary Theory
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryp
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryp
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Chap. z The PurelY Monetary Theory
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Chap. 2.The PurelY Monetary Theoryi
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Chap. 2The PurelY Monetary Theoryco
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Chap. 2The PI/relY Monetary Theorya
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CHAPTER 3THE OVER-INVESTMENT THEORI
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Chap. 3The Over-investment Theories
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Chap. ;The Over-investment Theories
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Chap. 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap~ 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap. ; The Over-:-im;estment Theor
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Chap. 3 The Over-jf/Pestment Theori
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Chap. 3The Over-inve.Jtment Theoric
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Chap. 3The· Over-investlnent Theor
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Chap. 3 T h~·· Over-investment Th
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Chap. 3 The Over-i1l1Jesfmenf Theor
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Chap. 3The Over-int 1 estment Theor
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Chap~ 3 The Over-investment Theorie
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Chap. 3 The O'IJer-investment Theor
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Chap. 3 The Over-illtJ6slmmt Theori
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Chap. 4 Changes in Cost as Cause of
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Chap. 4Changes in Cost as Cause of
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Chap. 4 Changes in Efficiency as Ca
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Chap. 4 Error Theories 113cars is d
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Chap. 4 The Debt-Deflation Theory l
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Chap. 4 Filkllldal Strwtllrl and th
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Chap. ,Under-consumption TheorilsIt
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Chap. S Under-conJllflJption Theori
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Chap. , Under-consumption Theories
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Chap. 5 UnJer-con.r1l111ptiOIl T!Ho
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Chap. 5 Under-consumption Theories
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Chap. ~(( top " ofthe structure ofp
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Chap. 5Under-consumption TheoriesTh
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Chap. S 133maladjustment or an insu
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Chap. SUnder-consumption Theoriesth
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Chap. , Ullder-COll~rIl1lJption 11J
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Chap. 5Under-consumption TheoriesTh
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Clap. ~Under-mullfIJption Theoriesc
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Chap. 6 U Psych%gica/ Theories" 143
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Chap. 6With the introduction of the
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Chap. 6 CC Pfych%gi&aJ TheorieJ " 1
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Chap. 6 149their own moneyJ the rep
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CHAPTER 7HARVEST THEORIES.AGRICULTU
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Chap. 7 Agri~Nihire and the Btisine
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Chap. 7Agriculture and the Business
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Chap. 7Agrie-IIJtNre and the BIIJi"
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Chap. 7Ag,.kuJture and the Business
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Chap. 7 161It is important to consi
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Chap. 7A
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Chap. 7AgriclJlture and the Busines
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Chap. 7Agriculture aIIti the BlIJin
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Chap. 8Recent Discussions on the Tr
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Chap. 8 Recent Discussions on the T
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Chap. 8 Recent DiscUJsion.! on the
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Chap. 8 Reant DisCll.fsions on the
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Chap. 8•{;Recent Discussions on t
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,Chap. 8 '&Bcent Discussions on the
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Chap. 8Recent Discussions on .the T
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Chap. 8 Recent DisCIISsion.s on the
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Chap. 8 Recent Di~rcussions on the
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Chap. 8 H.ece/it DiJcussiofu on the
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Chap. 8Recent Discussion.! on the T
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Chap. 8 'Recent Discussions on· th
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Nature and Causes of the CyclePart
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Nature and Callses 0./ the CyclePar
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334 Nature and' Causes of the Cycle
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;;8 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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34° Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and Cau.re.r ~f the Cycle Pa
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344 Natllre and Callses of the Cycl
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Nature and Causes oj. the CyclePart
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Nature and Causes of tht Cycl'Part
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354 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and· Causes of the CyclePar
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Nature and Callses of the C:JclePar
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Nature and Causes of the OclePart I
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392 Natllre and Causes of the Cycle
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394 Nature and Causes of the 0c1e P
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4°2. Nature and Causes of the Cycl
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CHAPTER 12INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF
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Nature and CatlSes of the CyclePart
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410 Nature and Causes 0.1 the Cycle
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4 1 2. Nattire and Causes of the Cy
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418 Nature and Causes of the C;ycle
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42.0 Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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42.2. Nature and .Causes of the Cyc
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Nature and Causes ~I the Cycle Part
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Nature and Callses of the CyclePart
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43° Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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o • ANature and CalISe.! of the C
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Nattire and Causes of the C:JclePar
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442. Nature and Causes of the Cycle
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Nature and Causes qf'the CyclePart
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Part IIIFURTHER REFLECTIONS ON RECE
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Recent Developments in Trade Cycle
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Recent Dell,Jopm,ntI in TraJ, eycJ,
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Recent Develop"lents in Trade Cycle
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Recent Developmenti in Trade Cycle
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47° Recent Developments in Trade C
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47 2 Recent Developments in Trade C
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474 Recent Developments in Trade Cy
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Recent Developments in, Trade Cycle
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49° Recent Developments in Trade C
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49 2 Recent Developments in Trade C
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soo Recent Developlllel1ts in Trade
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Appendix IDESCRIPTION OF THE INDICE
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Appendix I 5 11Employment.1911- 193
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Appendix IIB. Number of workpeople
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NAME INDEX TO PARTS I AND IIAdams,
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Name Index to Parts I and IIKeynes
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SUB}EC1' INDEX TO PARTS I AND IIAcc
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Subject Index to Parts I and II 5 2
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.. Subject Index to Parts I and IIB
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Subject Index 10 Paris I and IIInve
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Subject Index to Parts I and IIProd
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Subject Index to Parts I and IIWage
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Name and Subject Index to Part IIIK
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