Prosperity and Depression.pdf

Chap. 9Definition of the Cyclemuch the same way as the seasonal fluctuations are superimposedon the business cycle).Avoiding figurative language and leaving asideFacts about all speculations and dubious hypotheses, the broadthe long facts about these long waves seem to be as follows.'/Paves. It is possible to distinguish during the nineteenthand twentieth centuries altemating periods inwhich depression years and prosperity years respectively predominate.These periods extend from twenty. to thirty years,. andeach ofthem comprises two to five complete business cycles oftheshort type. These periods are, according to Professor SPIETHOFF,for Western Europe (I) 1822-1-842, (2) 1843-1873, (3) 1874-1894,(4) 1895-1913.1 The first of these periods contains two businesscycles in which the depression phase was much longer than theprosperity phase. In this .whole period, Professor SPIETHOFFcounts nine prosperous and twelve depressed years. In thesecond period (1843-1873) prosperous times prevail. In three anda-half business cycles there are twenty-one prosperous and tendepressed years, dt7pressions being short and mild. The· thirdperiod (1874-1894) begins with the prolonged and extremelysevere·· depression of the seventies. It contains two and a-halfcycles, and Professor SpmTHoFFcounts six prosperous and fifteendepressed years. This gloomy period is followed by a fourthperiod (1895-1913) which is overwhelmingly prosperous. Itcontains two and a-half cycles, the last one be~g interrupted bythe world war. Only four depression years stand against fifteenyears of prosperity, depressions being short and mild.We do·not deny' that there is an interestingNecessity phenomenon in the "long waves" which calls forfor previous explanation. Some prima facie plausible hypothesesanalYsis of have· been put forward to this end. There areshort 'J1/pves. stimulating and depressing- forces, which do notexhaust themselves within the span of one shortcycle but persist through a number of them, such as the up-anddowntrends of gold production, the exploitation of technicalI According to other investigators, the dates are approximately thesame.