Background_E_Market_Assessment - Shoalhaven City Council ...

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Nowra CBD Master Plan – Market Assessment5. DEMOGRAPHIC & EMPLOYMENT PROFILEAs part of this study, Hill PDA undertook a demographic analysis and employment profile of Nowra (suburb), Nowra-Bomaderry Statistical District (SD) and Shoalhaven Local Government Area (LGA). This was undertaken to provide abetter understanding of employment, economic, lifestyle and social characteristics of the area, and thereforerequirements for future commercial and residential land uses.5.1 Population GrowthShoalhaven City Council adopted revised population projections in May 2008 for the LGA and by Planning Area to2036. It can be seen from the table below that the population of the LGA is forecast to increase from 92,195 people to131,970 people by 2036. This equates to an annual compound growth rate of 1.20% per annum.Table 3 - Shoalhaven City LGA Population Projections (2006-2036)Location 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036AnnualCompoundGrowthPlanning Area 1:Nowra-Bomaderry StructurePlan Area31,891 34,019 36,498 38,844 40,863 42,566 44,104 1.09%Balance of Area 1 (Berry,Kangaroo Valley and11,360 12,706 14,626 16,616 18,480 20,176 21,775 2.19%Shoalhaven Heads)Sub Total Planning Area 1 43,251 46,725 51,124 55,460 59,343 62,742 65,879 1.41%Planning Area 2 (Culburra,Currarong, Callala Bay, Callala 6,688 6,644 6,620 6,610 6,579 6,505 6,358 -0.17%Beach)Planning Area 3 (St. GeorgesBasin, Vincentia, Sanctuary 18,479 19,935 21,336 22,669 23,894 24,985 25,996 1.14%Point, Erowal Bay)Planning Area 4 (SussexInlet, Cudmirra, Berrara)4,365 4,741 5,191 5,611 5,988 6,306 6,579 1.38%Planning Area 5 - (Ulladulla,Milton , plus others)19,412 20,713 22,025 23,424 24,855 26,102 27,188 1.13%Total 92,195 98,758 106,296 113,774 120,659 126,640 131,970 1.20%Source: Shoalhaven City Council, March 2008.More specifically, it can be seen that the Nowra-Bomaderry Structure Plan Area is forecast to increase by 12,213persons to 2036. This equates to an annual compound growth rate of 1.09% per annum . The remainder of PlanningArea 1, which includes Kangaroo Valley, Berry and Shoalhaven Heads, will grow strongly by an estimated 2.19% perannum.Comparing growth forecasts to surrounding locations, the results indicate the Shoalhaven LGA is to cater for much ofthe growth in the South Coast and Illawarra Regions. By comparison to Shoalhaven LGA’s 1.20% compound annualgrowth, Shellharbour and Kiama are forecasting population growth of around 0.70% per annum, and Wingecarribeearound 1.10% growth per annum. Bega Valley and Eurobodalla are forecast to increase by around 1.11% and 1.36%per annum respectively.C09143 Page 26 Hill PDA
Nowra CBD Master Plan – Market AssessmentTable 4 - Population Projection Comparisons (2006-2036)Location 2006 2036Annual CompoundGrowthNowra-Bomaderry 31,891 44,104 1.09%Shoalhaven LGA Remainder 60,304 87,866 1.26%Shoalhaven LGA 92,195 131,970 1.20%Shellharbour LGA 63,400 78,400 0.71%Kiama LGA 20,000 24,800 0.72%Wingecarribee LGA 44,400 61,100 1.07%Wollongong LGA 194,500 235,800 0.64%Illawarra Statistical Division 414,700 529,100 0.82%Bega Valley LGA 32,500 45,300 1.11%Eurobodalla LGA 36,600 54,900 1.36%Source: Shoalhaven City Council (March 2008) and NSW Department of Planning (April 2010)5.2 Key Resident Demographic CharacteristicsBased on an analysis of Shoalhaven LGA’s demographic data from 1996 to 2006, the key demographic characteristicsand trends impacting on Nowra were:• In 2006, the population of Nowra was 8,905 people. Nowra-Bomaderry had a population of 30,955 people andShoalhaven LGA had a population of 88,405 people;• Between 1996 and 2006, the population of the Nowra-Bomaderry increased by 3,966 people, equating to acompound growth rate of 1.39%. This can be compared to the LGA where the population increased by 10,156people over the same period, equating to a compound growth rate of 1.29%. By comparison, the population ofKiama and Shellharbour LGA’s grew by 0.49% and 1.36% per annum respectively between 1996 and 2006;• In 2006 the median age of Nowra residents was 40 years. Nowra-Bomaderry and Shoalhaven LGA had medianages of 35 years and 44 years respectively. Both median ages have increased significantly since the 1996census. Despite this, there are a high proportion of younger people (i.e. 0-14 year’s age bracket);• Home ownership levels are at there lowest in Nowra with 51.6% of dwellings either owned or being purchased.This can be compared to the Nowra-Bomaderry (66.3%) and the LGA (72.7%). As a result, rental levels are atthere highest in Nowra with 43.8% of dwellings rented, compared to Nowra-Bomaderry (30.6%) and the LGA(23.8%). Home ownership levels have increased since the 1996 Census;• In 2006, 93.4% and 92.7% of private dwellings were occupied in Nowra and Nowra-Bomaderry respectively.This is significantly higher than the LGA, which had an occupancy rate of 73.2%. This is mainly due to thehigher number of holiday homes in coastal areas of the LGA, such as Ulladulla and Mollymook;• The majority of households are family households; however, when compared, there are a lower proportion offamilies recorded in Nowra compared to Nowra-Bomaderry and the LGA;• 79.9% of dwellings in Nowra were separate houses and 15% were units. This can be compared to the Nowra-Bomaderry (86.5% houses and 7.9% units) and the LGA (90.3% houses and 4.1% units); and• In 2006, the median weekly household income of Nowra was $576/week, compared to Nowra-Bomaderry($776/week) and the LGA ($659/week). Incomes have increased significantly since the 1996 Census. Bycomparison, Kiama and Shellharbour LGA’s had median incomes of $1,052/week and $983/week respectively.C09143 Page 27 Hill PDA
Page 1 and 2: Nowra CBD Master PlanMarket Assessm
Page 3 and 4: QUALITY ASSURANCEREPORT CONTACT :SI
Page 5 and 6: Nowra CBD Master Plan - Market Asse
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