Background_E_Market_Assessment - Shoalhaven City Council ...

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Nowra CBD Master Plan – Market AssessmentCONTENTS1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................82. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................122.1 Study Background .................................................................................................................... 122.2 Study Brief and Methodology ................................................................................................. 133. PLANNING & POLICY CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................................143.1 South Coast Regional Strategy (2006-2031)....................................................................... 143.2 Nowra-Bomaderry Structure Plan (2006)............................................................................. 154. ANALYSIS OF LAND USE TRENDS ............................................................................184.1 Retail Trends ............................................................................................................................. 184.2 Other Trends ............................................................................................................................. 245. DEMOGRAPHIC & EMPLOYMENT PROFILE ..................................................................265.1 Population Growth .................................................................................................................... 265.2 Key Resident Demographic Characteristics......................................................................... 275.3 Resident Workforce by Occupation ....................................................................................... 285.4 Resident Workforce by Industry ............................................................................................. 285.5 Where do Residents Work? .................................................................................................... 295.6 Where do the Workers Come From? .................................................................................... 306. TOURISM.............................................................................................................316.1 Visitors to Shoalhaven LGA .................................................................................................... 316.2 Tourism Businesses in Shoalhaven LGA ............................................................................. 326.3 Implications for Nowra CBD.................................................................................................... 337. RETAIL & COMMERCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS ..............................................................347.1 Existing Retail Floorspace in Nowra CBD ............................................................................ 347.2 Existing Retail Floorspace in Surrounding Centres ............................................................ 367.3 Proposed Retail and Commercial Developments ............................................................... 387.4 Retail and Commercial Market Considerations ................................................................... 398. RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL DEMAND .........................................................................418.1 Trade Area Analysis ................................................................................................................. 418.2 Population Projections ............................................................................................................. 418.3 Retail Spend by Residents...................................................................................................... 428.4 Tourism Expenditure ................................................................................................................ 448.5 Supply versus Demand............................................................................................................ 459. RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................469.1 The Market Context.................................................................................................................. 469.2 The Housing Market ................................................................................................................. 469.3 Land Values............................................................................................................................... 489.4 Proposed Residential Developments .................................................................................... 489.5 Implications for Nowra CBD.................................................................................................... 49C09143 Page 4 Hill PDA
Nowra CBD Master Plan – Market AssessmentAppendix 1 – Resident Demographic Characteristics (2006 ABS Census Data)Appendix 2 – Existing Retail Floorspace Supply in Nowra CBD by Street (GLA)Appendix 3 – Existing Number of Shopfronts in Nowra CBDAppendix 4 – Existing Number of Shopfronts in Nowra CBD by StreetLIST OF FIGURESFigure 1 - Study Area .....................................................................................................12LIST OF TABLESTable 1 - Forecast Demand for Retail Floor Space in Nowra CBD (2011-2036) ...............................10Table 2 - South Coast Centres Hierarchy .............................................................................15Table 3 - Shoalhaven City LGA Population Projections (2006-2036).............................................26Table 4 - Population Projection Comparisons (2006-2036) ........................................................27Table 5 - Resident Workforce by Occupation .........................................................................28Table 6 - Resident Workforce by Industry 1996-2006 ...............................................................29Table 7 - Where do Residents Work? (2006) .........................................................................29Table 8 - Where do Workers come From? ............................................................................30Table 9 - Summary of International and Domestic Travel to the Shoalhaven (2007) ..........................32Table 10 - Tourism Business Classifications..........................................................................33Table 11 - Summary of Tourism Businesses in Shoalhaven LGA (June 2007) .................................33Table 12 - Existing Reta il Floorspace Supply in Nowra CBD 2010 (GLA sqm) .................................35Table 13 - Land Values – Business Zoned Land .....................................................................40Table 14 - Population Forecast by Planning District by Census Year (2006-2036) ............................41Table 15 - Per Capita Expenditure in 2008-09........................................................................42Table 16 - Assumed Nowra CBD Capture Rates.....................................................................43Table 17 - Forecast Expenditure Captured in Nowra CBD by Store Type ($2009) ............................43Table 18 - Target Turnover Levels ($/sqm)* to 2036 ................................................................44Table 19 - Forecast Demand for Retail Floor Space in Nowra CBD to 2036 ....................................44Table 20 - Comparison of Demand versus Supply (sqm) ...........................................................45Table 21 - Residential Dwelling Mix (2006) ...........................................................................46Table 22 - Median Residential Values (2009).........................................................................47Table 23 - Median Residential Values by Suburb (2009)*..........................................................47Table 24 - Shoalhaven Residential Vacant Land Values (2010) ..................................................48C09143 Page 5 Hill PDA
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Background_E_Market_Assessment - Shoalhaven City Council ...

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