Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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consider broad institutional issues, a more detailedcapacity analysis could provide a more nuancedunderstanding of policy and regulatory gaps, existingplanning and decision-making processes, coordinationbetween key municipal organizations, andentry points for strengthening state, private sectorand civil society relations with respect to addressingurban adaptation.Uncertainties, limitations, and interpretingthe findings of this studyAny study forecasting conditions four decadeshence will be faced with large uncertainties. Oneissue facing the analysis was what would be thepathway of GHG emissions. To address that issue,the city case studies examined both a high and alow GHG emissions scenario to bracket the likelyfuture conditions. In the climate change downscalingmethodologies, there are uncertainties inforecasting the increase in extreme and seasonalprecipitation under the different scenarios. Thetechniques applied in the statistical downscalingexamined the results from numerous AOGCMs.Robust relationships were identified for temperatureand precipitable water increases, where theinternal error was estimated at ~ 10 percent errorand ~ 10–20 percent error, respectively (Sugiyama2008). Hydrologic models can simulate flood eventswith relatively small errors (
BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J. Ingram. 2002. “Constraintson future changes in climate and the hydrologicalcycle.” Nature 419: 224–232.ALMEC Corporation. 2008. Final Report on theStudy on Climate Change Impact over Asian MegaCities (Phase 2): Metro Manila. Final Report to JICA.Manila: ALMEC.American Society of Civil Engineers. 1996. HydrologyHandbook. ASCE Press: New York.Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2010. Ho Chi MinhCity. Adaptation to Climate Change. In collaborationwith the HCMC People’s Committee and DONRE.Prepared by ICEM - International Center for EnvironmentalManagement.Asian Institute of Technology. 2004. An Assessmentof the Socioeconomic Impacts of Floods in Large CoastalAreas. Final Report for APN CAPaBLE Project:2004-CB01NSY-Dutta.CTI Engineering International Co. Ltd. 2008. TheStudy on Climate Impact Adaptation and Mitigationin Asian Coastal Mega Cities -Case of Metro Manila.Final Report to JICA. Tokyo: CTI Engineering InternationalCo. Ltd. (unpublished).ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin Americaand the Caribbean). 2003. Handbook for EstimatingSocioeconomic and Environmental Effects of Disasters.Mexico: ECLAC.General Statistics Office (GSO) Vietnam. 2006.Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys, 2002 and2004: Basic Information, Hanoi, Vietnam.Giorgi, Filippo. 2008. “Regionalization of climatechange information for impact assessment andadaptation.” WMO Bulletin 57 (2): 86–92.Grimm, N. B. et al. 2008. “Global Change and theEcology of Cities.” Science 319 (5864): 756–760.Gupta, A. et al. 2009. @ 110 Km/hr. Down to Earth.June 16–30, 2009.Ibaraki University, Institute for Global Change AdaptationScience. 2008. Climate Change Impact overAsian Mega Cities: Advisory for Coastal Engineering andAdaptation. Paper Commissioned by JICA. Ibaraki:Ibaraki University.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). 2007b. Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptationand Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. vander Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds.) Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spm.html81
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
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policy implications have broader re
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2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
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Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
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Return periods considered 18In this
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Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
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Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
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sion and distribution lines, and en
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Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
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prices and the same prices are appl
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3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
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Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
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Estimation of storm surge in the ca
Page 49 and 50: Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
Page 93 and 94: of reducing vulnerability of the po
Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
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Page 99: hydrometeorological data, yielding
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Page 110 and 111: ADB. The selection and prioritizati
Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
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Page 120: THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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