Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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Figure 3.14a ■ HCMC Poverty Rates byDistrictrural poor living in the south of the city are directlydependent on natural resources for their livelihood.For instance, 60 percent of agricultural land wouldbe affected by saline intrusion during regularfloods. Inundation by salt water can damage cropsand reduce the productivity of agricultural land,thus impacting the livelihoods of the rural poor. Inurban areas of the city, the poor typically live alongcanals and drainage ditches—for example, NhieuLoc Thi, Nghe canal, Tan Hoa-Lo Gom canal, Doi-Te canal—or in slum areas near industries. Theseareas are among those at higher risk from flooding,in part due to underdeveloped infrastructure andpoor drainage and sanitation facilities.Economic activity is highly vulnerable toflooding now and in the futureFigure 3.14b ■ Districts Vulnerable toFloodingThe industrial sector is an important and growingpart of the HCMC economy. Climate change willaffect economic activity and industrial productionboth directly through inundation of production areas,and indirectly through inundation of essentialinfrastructure linked to strategic economic assetsand effects on the availability of key productioninputs (e.g. water, primary resources). Fifty percentof industrial zones (IZs) are at risk 45 of flooding fromextreme events with the proposed flood controlmeasures in place, and 53 percent without the systemin place (ADB 2010). An additional 20 percentof IZs will be located within 1 km of likely inundationif the proposed flood control measures are inplace (22 percent if the flood control measures arenot in place), meaning that they are likely to sufferindirect impacts. In terms of land area assigned toindustrial activities, about 67 percent of the areapotentially under industrial use in 2050 is likely tobe affected (Table 3.16).The city’s existing and planned transportnetwork is also likely to be exposed to increasedSource: ADB (2010).districts with higher poverty rates (indicated by redand orange in Figure 3.14a). However, in some ofthe areas that are most at risk—such as Can Gio andNha Be—the poor and non-poor are both at risk. The45Risk from impacts due to climate-related impacts—namely,flooding— in the study was determined by calculatingthe distance of an infrastructure component or facility fromthe flood zone that is inundated and assigning it a risk factor.Thus a distance of 0km from the flood zone shows it isinundated,
Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding onFuture Land Use under2050 A2 Extreme EventFuture landuse type% future land useaffected without floodcontrol system% future land useaffected with floodcontrol systemUrban 61 49Industrial 67 63Open space 77 76Source: ADB (2010).flooding. Under the A2 scenario, a 1-in-30-yearevent would inundate 76 percent of the axis roads,58 percent of the ring roads, and nearly half of thecity’s main intersections, even with the flood dykeprotection system. Further, 60 percent of the city’swaste water treatment plants and 90 percent of thelandfill sites are at risk of flooding (Figure 3.15).The environmental consequences of flood watersinundating landfill sites and carrying pollutantsto nearby fish ponds is a potential risk that needsfurther consideration.Figure 3.15 ■ Impact on WasteManagement SectorImpact of saline intrusion on naturalresource dependent sectorsIt is estimated that the impact of flooding on agriculture,forestry, and primary industries will besevere. In 2050, it is expected that there will be asignificant increase in saline intrusion. Saline intrusionis mainly a problem during regular flooding,which is dominated by tidal influences (ADB 2010).It is estimated that close to 60 percent of agriculturallands are expected to be affected by increased salinityin 2050. Increased storm activity and sea levelrise are expected to increase the level of salinity insurface waters and also groundwater resources.However, since agriculture is of declining importancein HCMC, this has a more direct impact onthe poor and farmers directly dependent on theseresources rather than the economy as a whole. Figure3.16 shows an overlay of the 2050 A2 1-in-30-year flood on projected land use patterns. It showsthat flooding will impact broad areas and sectors,but particularly agricultural and protected areas.Figure 3.16 ■ HCMC 2050 A2 1-in-30-year Flood InundationOverlaid on ProjectedLand Use PatternsSource: ADB (2010).Source: ADB (2010).Estimating Flood Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Coastal Cities | 49
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
Page 17 and 18: infrastructure but a high emission
Page 19: these include strategies that focus
Page 23 and 24: policy implications have broader re
Page 25: 2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
Page 28 and 29: Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
Page 30 and 31: Return periods considered 18In this
Page 32 and 33: Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
Page 36 and 37: sion and distribution lines, and en
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
Page 40 and 41: prices and the same prices are appl
Page 43 and 44: 3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
Page 45 and 46: Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
Page 47 and 48: Estimation of storm surge in the ca
Page 49 and 50: Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
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Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
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Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
Page 106 and 107: a paper commissioned by JICA (Sugiy
Page 108 and 109: mercial and industrial establishmen
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Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
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THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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