Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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ADB. The selection and prioritization of projectsfor adaptation should be based on cost benefitanalysis using the net present value (NPV) approach.Factoring in the additional impact due toclimate change in such cost benefit analysis mayrender many projects—which previously did notshow an adequate return on investment—economicallyviable.90 | Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report
AnnexBScenarios Applied in theHydrodynamic Modeling inthe HCMC studySeasonal ExtremeINPUTSStormUpstreamSCENARIOS Rainfall Rainfall Surge Mean Sea Level Inflow Landuse PURPOSESI.BL.0 Baseline_Max No No Baseline Baseline Baseline Extent and duration of the “regular” seasonalmonsoon floods with current land useI.B2.0 B2_Max No No B2 2050+24cm Baseline BaselineI.A2.0 A2_Max No No A2 2050+26cm Baseline BaselineI.BL.1 Baseline_Max No No No Baseline 2050 Extent and duration of the “regular” seasonalmonsoon floods with planned futureI.B2.1 B2_Max No No B2 2050+24cm Baseline 2050land use and flood control systemI.A2.1 A2_Max No No A2 2050+26cm Baseline 2050I.BL.0_1 Baseline_Max Baseline_30y No No 100y 2050 Extent of the floods caused by 30y stormI.B2.0_1 B2_Max B2_30y No B2 2050+24cm 100y 2050 rainfall (but without storm surge) and 100yextreme upstream inflow; with plannedI.A2.0_1 A2_Max A2_30y No A2 2050+26cm 100y 2050future land use and flood control systemII.BL.0 Baseline_Max Baseline_30y Linda No 100y Baseline Extent of the “extreme” floods driven byII.B2.0 B2_Max B2_30y Linda B2 2050+24cm 100y Baseline combination of tropical storms (typhoons)surge, mean sea level rise, 30y rainfall andII.A2.0 A2_Max A2_30y Linda A2 2050+26cm 100y Baseline100y upstream inflow; with current land useII.BL.1 Baseline_Max Baseline_30y Linda No 100y 2050 Extent of the “extreme” floods driven byII.B2.1 B2_Max B2_30y Linda B2 2050+24cm 100y 2050 combination of storms surge, mean sealevel rise, 30y rainfall and 100y upstreamII.A2.1 A2_Max A2_30y Linda A2 2050 +26cm 100y 2050inflow; with planned future land use andflood control systemII.BL.0_a Baseline_Max No Linda No Baseline Baseline Extent of floods and saltwater intrusionII.B2.0_a B2_Max No Linda B2 2050 +24cm Baseline Baseline caused by storm surge and sea level riseonly in current land useII.A2.0_a A2_Max No Linda A2 2050 +26cm Baseline BaselineII.BL.0_b Baseline_Max Baseline_30y No No 100y Baseline Extent of the floods caused by 100 yII.B2.0_b B2_Max B2_30y No B2 2050 +24cm 100y Baseline extreme upstream inflow and 30y stormrainfall (without storm surge) in currentII.A2.0_b A2_Max A2_30y No A2 2050 +26cm 100y Baselineland useIII.bl.0 Baseline_Min No No No Baseline Baseline Extent of combination effect of drought andIII.B2.0 B2_Min No No B2 2050 +24cm Baseline Baseline sea level rise on water quality especially riskof salinization under current land useIII.A2.0 A2_Min No No A2 2050 +26cm Baseline BaselineI.BL.1_1 Baseline_Max Baseline_30y No No 100y 2050 Extent of floods driven by 30y rainfall, 100yI.B2.1_1 B2_Max B2_30y No B2 2050 +24cm 100y 2050 upstream inflow and mean sea level rise;with planned future land use and floodI.A2.1_1 A2_Max A2_30y No A2 2050 +26cm 100y 2050control systemSource: ADB (2010).91
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
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policy implications have broader re
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2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
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Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
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Return periods considered 18In this
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Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
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Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
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sion and distribution lines, and en
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Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
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prices and the same prices are appl
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3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
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Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
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Estimation of storm surge in the ca
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Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
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Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
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Manila’s current climate—Tropic
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Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
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Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
Page 93 and 94: of reducing vulnerability of the po
Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
Page 97 and 98: open land use is expected to be flo
Page 99 and 100: hydrometeorological data, yielding
Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
Page 106 and 107: a paper commissioned by JICA (Sugiy
Page 108 and 109: mercial and industrial establishmen
Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
Page 115: of people and institutions to manag
Page 120: THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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