Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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over the period of analysis. These assumptions aredescribed in chapter 2. Damages costs are evaluatedin Thai Baht and converted to US dollars, using anaverage exchange rate for 2008 of 1 US$ = 33.31 THB.Bangkok likely to witness substantialdamage costs from flooding in 2050, rangingfrom $1.5 billion to $7 billion under a seriesof climate and land use scenariosTable 4.2 presents the costs incurred from damagesto buildings, income losses, health costs, and revenuelosses to public utilities for a range of scenarios.A comparison across scenarios shows that the costsare likely to significantly increase with climate andland use change. In the base case scenario (2050-LS-T10), a 1-in-10-year flood is estimated to resultin damages of 52 billion THB ($1.5 billion), but a1-in-100-year flood with climate change (2050-LS-SS-SR-A1FI) could cost THB 244 billion ($7 billion).The increase in costs from flooding are best illustratedby looking at the implications of a mediumsizedflood. A 1-in-30-year flood in 2008 (2008-T30),for instance, is estimated to result in damage costsof 35 billion THB ($1 billion). In 2050 with climatechange (2050-LS-SS-SR-A1FI-T30), a similar 1-in-30-year flood would cost 148 billion ($4.5 billion) 46 .Thus, in a future climate change (A1FI) scenario, a 1-in-30-year flood in 2050 could lead to a four-fold increasein costs to Bangkok.To illustrate the nature of different costs associatedwith floods, Figure 4.1 breaks down the costsassociated with a 1-in-30-year flood in the future(2050-LS-SS-SR-A1FI). As the figure shows, thedirect costs to buildings are the highest costs borneas a result of flooding, followed by income lossesto commercial establishments.It is useful to understand more carefully therelationship between the costs of hazards such asfloods and the probability of their occurrence. Figure4.2 plots total damage costs to Bangkok fromfloods in different scenarios against the probabilityof their occurrence. As this figure suggests, the costsof damage increase for higher intensity floods, butthis also means that there is a lower probability ofsuch floods occurring. The area beneath each floodexceedance curve represents the average total expectedflood damage cost from floods of differentFigure 4.1 ■ Damage Cost Associatedwith a 1-in-30-year Flood(C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30)Damage costs (millions of THB)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000055,432Residence14045,945CommerceSource: Panya Consultants ( 2009).21,67112,3029,726IndustryIndirect ImpactPublic HealthDamage to Residencial BuildingDamage to Commercial BuildingDamage to Industrial BuildingIncome Loss of Daily Wage EarnerIncome Loss of CommerceIncome Loss of IndustryHealth Care CostIncome Loss of EnergyIncome Loss of Water Supply and SanitationTotal Damage Cost2,012 1,145 13EnergyDirect ImpactWater Supply& Sanitation55,432 MBaht45,94512,30214021,6719,7262,0121,14513148,386 MBahtintensity in any one year. The difference in the areasbetween different exceedance curves representsthe incremental annual damages as a result of a newclimate/land use scenario. These annualized valuesare discussed later in the chapter.Figure 4.2 ■ Loss Exceedance Curves,BangkokDamage costs (mill THB)300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00000.00 0.05 0.10 0.15Probability of flood ocurrence2008 2050-LS 2050-LS-SR-B12050-LS-SR-A1FI 2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FISource: Based on calculations in Panya Consultants (2009).461 USD=33.3133 THB, which was the average exchangerate in 2008.52 | Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report
Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and Storm Damages, Bangkok (million 2008 THB)Damaged Items 2008-T102050-LS-T102050-LS-SR-B1-T102050-LS-SR-A1FI-T102050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T10 2008-T302050-LS-T302050-LS-SR-B1-T302050-LS-SR-A1FI-T302050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 2008-T100Damage building 12,166 40,277 54,231 63,982 70,058 27,281 75,500 97,761 105,575 113,679 61,037 142,432 170,368 176,328 179,695 188,2152050-LS-T1002050-LS-SR-B1-T1002050-LS-SR-SS-B1-T1002050-LS-SR-A1FI-T1002050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T100Residence 7,462 21,500 27,813 31,907 34,465 15,894 37,739 48,746 52,072 55,432 33,557 68,420 80,591 83,312 84,631 88,628Commerce 3,254 13,565 19,466 23,828 26,814 8,293 29,250 38,689 42,157 45,945 20,960 61,657 74,194 76,781 78,492 82,147Industry 1,450 5,212 6,952 8,247 8,779 3,094 8,511 10,326 11,346 12,302 6,520 12,355 15,583 16,235 16,572 17,440Income/revenue 2,761 11,005 15,875 18,132 20,188 7,069 22,717 29,311 31,533 32,695 14,901 39,854 48,699 50,009 50,223 51,629lossDaily wageearner27 47 71 80 89 92 102 128 137 140 167 176 205 205 205 205Commerce 1,315 6,306 9,638 11,138 12,676 4,077 14,940 19,518 20,883 21,671 9,172 27,744 33,963 34,913 34,968 3,508Industry 1,264 4,260 5,699 6,394 6,894 2,640 7,066 8,596 9,397 9,726 4,897 9,965 12,174 12,534 12,692 13,158Energy 149 383 456 508 517 254 598 1,057 1,104 1,145 659 1,954 2,340 2,340 2,341 2,341Water supply &sanitation6 9 11 12 12 6 11 12 12 13 6 15 17 17 17 17Health care cost 321 537 717 825 872 934 1,107 1,665 1,893 2,012 3,240 3,473 4,020 4,020 3,945 4,022Total 15,248 51,819 70,823 82,939 91,118 35,284 99,324 128,737 139,001 148,386 79,178 185,759 223,087 230,357 233,863 243,866Total USD 458 1,556 2,126 2,490 2,735 1,059 2,982 3,864 4,173 4,454 2,377 5,576 6,697 6,915 7,020 7,320Source: Panya Consultants’ calculation.Notes: LS= land subsidence, SS=storm surge, SR= sea-level rise, B1 =low climate emissions, A1FI =high climate emissions, T10, T30, T100 = flood intensitiesAssessing Damage Costs and Prioritizing Adaptation Options | 53
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
Page 23 and 24: policy implications have broader re
Page 25: 2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
Page 28 and 29: Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
Page 30 and 31: Return periods considered 18In this
Page 32 and 33: Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
Page 36 and 37: sion and distribution lines, and en
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
Page 40 and 41: prices and the same prices are appl
Page 43 and 44: 3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
Page 45 and 46: Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
Page 47 and 48: Estimation of storm surge in the ca
Page 49 and 50: Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
Page 93 and 94: of reducing vulnerability of the po
Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
Page 97 and 98: open land use is expected to be flo
Page 99 and 100: hydrometeorological data, yielding
Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
Page 106 and 107: a paper commissioned by JICA (Sugiy
Page 108 and 109: mercial and industrial establishmen
Page 110 and 111: ADB. The selection and prioritizati
Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
Page 115: of people and institutions to manag
Page 120: THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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