Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the Cost of Floods up to 2050 using the GDPEstimation MethodDistrictRegular FloodingGDP Loss (VND)Extreme FloodingGDP Loss (VND)TotalGDP Loss (VND)District 1 4,262,678,022,700 118,930,920,400 4,381,608,943,100District 2 91,872,408,828,200 684,250,653,100 92,556,659,481,300District 3 — 1,045,570,300 1,045,570,300District 4 2,111,546,363,400 79,830,492,300 2,191,376,855,700District 5 2,036,113,916,300 63,099,964,700 2,099,213,881,000District 6 102,479,383,000 23,505,283,400 125,984,666,400District 7 23,901,066,736,700 319,603,147,100 24,220,669,883,800District 8 3,089,545,724,600 162,117,638,100 3,251,663,362,700District 9 203,476,562,493,300 1,573,188,396,600 205,049,750,889,900District 10 5,608,083,746,600 104,469,939,500 5,712,553,686,100District 11 1,631,296,447,400 36,684,956,800 1,667,981,404,200District 12 107,560,392,251,700 816,151,762,100 108,376,544,013,800District Go Vap 13,980,278,430,700 30,422,891,000 14,010,701,321,700District Tan Binh — 1,135,984,100 1,135,984,100District Binh Thanh 43,871,270,790,100 414,883,343,800 44,286,154,133,900District Phu Nhuan — 2,004,000 2,004,000District Thu Duc 59,101,002,606,400 533,992,286,200 59,634,994,892,600District Cu Chi 28,955,319,716,000 365,741,723,400 29,321,061,439,400District Hoc Mon 44,762,782,087,100 565,835,862,900 45,328,617,950,000District Binh Chanh 97,469,697,076,900 1,276,837,444,400 98,746,534,521,300District Nha Be 42,592,220,679,200 331,433,560,700 42,923,654,239,900District Can Gio 24,169,804,222,200 206,645,566,200 24,376,449,788,400District Tan Phu — 23,680,600 23,680,600District Binh Tan 6,276,999,023,500 268,297,958,200 6,545,296,981,700Total 806,831,548,546,000 7,978,131,029,900 814,809,679,575,900USD 49,492,036,286 489,388,338 49,981,424,624Source: ADB (2010). Some differences due to exchange rate variations.1 USD=16302.25Table 4.15 presents a summary of the costestimates from HCMC based on different methodologies.In summary, a first approximation of thecosts of climate change for regular flooding eventsis between $6.15 billion and $49.5 billion in presentvalue terms, and between $0.42 billion and $6.9billion for extreme flooding. 57The results of the two damage valuations showconsiderable divergence, with GDP figures suggestingdouble the damage costs achieved usingthe land value methodology. This may result fromtwo different factors. First, it is well known that administrativelydetermined land prices (as opposed57The HCMC numbers are much higher than the damagecosts associated with flooding in Manila and Bangkok.However, as previously noted, these numbers reflect thesum of a series of annual damages that are expected to occurfrom now up to 2050 and are not directly comparablewith the damage costs of one event in Bangkok or Manila.Assessing Damage Costs and Prioritizing Adaptation Options | 71