Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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AnnexAVulnerability of KolkataMetropolitan Areato increased Precipitationin a Changing ClimateGlobal and RegionalContextStudy ObjectivesThis study sought to:Low-lying coastal areas are highly vulnerable toflooding. A number of recent studies have shownthat coastal areas are vulnerable to a range ofrisks related to climate change, including coastalflooding. Among these coastal areas, the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change specificallyidentifies as hotspots the heavily urbanized megacitiesin the low-lying deltas of Asia (IPCC 2007 b).Among Asian countries, India— with its 7,500 kmlong predominantly low-lying and densely populatedcoastline—is particularly vulnerable. A recentglobal survey identified Kolkata and Mumbai asamong the top ten cities with high exposure toflooding under the current climate change forecasts(Nicholls et al. 2008). The study also showsthat exposure will increase in the future; by 2070,Kolkata is expected to lead the top 10 list in termsof population exposure.In response, the World Bank—in collaborationwith the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and theJapan Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA)—launched four country-level studies forManila (led by JICA), Ho Chi Minh City (led byADB), and Bangkok and Kolkata (led by the WorldBank).■■■■■■■■■■■■Compile a database with past weather-relatedinformation and damage caused by extremeweather-related episodes.Determine scenarios most appropriate for assessingthe impact of climate change.Develop hydrological, hydraulic, and stormdrainage models to identify vulnerable areasand determine physical damage estimates resultingfrom climate change effects.Assess monetary, social, and environmental impactsresulting from such climate change events.Formulate adaptation proposals to cope withdamage arising from climate change effects.Strengthen local capabilities so that Kolkata’splanning process can account for climate-relateddamage effects in analyzing new projects.In this study, precipitation events in Kolkatabased on available historical rainfall data for 25years were used as a baseline (without climatechange) scenario. For modeling climate change,predictions for temperature and precipitationchanges in Kolkata in 2050 for A1FI and B1 emissionscenarios—from an analysis of 16 GCMs used for theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report—were provided by85
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
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policy implications have broader re
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2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
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Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
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Return periods considered 18In this
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Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
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Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
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sion and distribution lines, and en
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Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
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prices and the same prices are appl
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3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
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Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
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Estimation of storm surge in the ca
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Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
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Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
Page 93 and 94: of reducing vulnerability of the po
Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
Page 97 and 98: open land use is expected to be flo
Page 99 and 100: hydrometeorological data, yielding
Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
Page 107 and 108: estimates. All these scenarios (wit
Page 109 and 110: sustain significant damage. Due to
Page 111: AnnexBScenarios Applied in theHydro
Page 114 and 115: Accommodate—a traditionapproach i
Page 117: AnnexDComparison of Costsacross Cit
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