Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in Manila (2008 PHP)(Continued)Cost in 2008 in Pesos P100 SQ EX P100 SQ MP P100 B1 EX P100 B1 MP P100 A1FI-EX P100 A1FI MPDamage to Buildings Residential 3,688,647,788 1,045,670,772 6,022,893,816 1,326,288,039 7,517,544,912 2,101,690,472Commercial 37,699,327,245 15,298,341,749 63,871,514,594 25,506,211,401 68,021,524,157 37,713,082,264Institutional 298,785,692 158,994,559 485,447,235 173,893,911 1,874,981,233 253,765,175Industrial 8,650,623,155 5,694,313,706 16,556,719,073 5,532,356,399 17,850,618,995 9,193,023,327Maintenance costs Current roads 8,143,240 3,010,272 9,677,159 4,831,659 10,443,791 5,780,183Future roads 360,001 360,001 485,467 485,467 524,226 524,226Vehicle operating costs 50,729,576 22,855,337 62,246,103 36,684,130 68,001,872 43,885,751Travel time costs 706,986,380 277,477,558 1,082,134,984 197,675,748 1,420,426,406 340,173,579Loss to Firms Sales 13,403,412,143 6,567,976,899 14,085,687,162 7,745,705,319 14,639,854,088 8,339,388,091Income loss of settlers Formal settlers 214,933,500 67,473,375 230,942,250 95,140,125 481,092,750 105,586,875Informal settlers 6,050,968 584,668 6,881,952 1,247,540 7,089,432 2,091,824Total (PHP) 64,727,999,688 29,137,058,896 102,414,629,796 40,620,519,739 111,892,101,862 58,098,991,768Total (USD) 1,455,393,788 655,139,889 2,302,768,766 913,342,794 2,515,867,487 1,306,342,1101 USD=44.474561 PHPSource: Muto et al. (2010).62 | Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report
Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curvesfor Manila (PHP)Damage costs120,000,000,000100,000,000,00080,000,000,00060,000,000,00040,000,000,00020,000,000,00000.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12Probability of floodsSQ EX SQ MP B1 EX B1 MP A1FI EX A1FI MPSource: Based on estimations in Muto et al. (2010).as the probability of their occurrence decreases. Aspreviously discussed, the area beneath each curverepresents the average total annual expected damagecosts from floods of all intensities (also see adaptationsection). Note that the loss exceedance curve ishighest for the A1FI emissions scenario (A1FI-EX).Climate change increases the extent of damages inall types of floods.Implementing existing Master Plansrelated to infrastructure development willsignificantly reduce flooding related costsFigure 4.6 ■ Damage Costs Associatedwith Different Scenarios(PHP)120,000,000,000100,000,000,00080,000,000,00060,000,000,00040,000,000,00020,000,000,0000SQ EX SQ MP B1 EX B1 MP A1FI EX A1FI MP1/10 1/30 1/100Source: Based on estimations in Muto et al. (2010).As Figure 4.6 shows, under each climate scenario,implementing the master plan will result in a significantreduction in costs. In an A1FI climate changescenario, for example, a 1-in-30-year flood will resultin damages to the extent of PHP 69 billion ($1.5 billion)without the master plan and PHP 19 billion($427 million) with the master plan implemented, soimplementing the master plan would reduce flooddamages by over 70 percent, given climate changeand the possibility of a 1-in-30-year flood. Thus, avery good starting point for Manila, in terms of itsresponse to climate change, would be to reconsiderand evaluate the master plans that are already onthe books.Building damages make up a major portionof flood-induced costsThe single most important contributor to totaldamage costs in each of the climate scenarios isdamage to buildings. Approximately 72 percent ofthe costs from a 1-in-30-year flood (averaged acrossall scenarios), for instance, result from damage tobuildings. Figure 4.7 shows the damage to buildingsin the case of a 1-in-30-year flood. The damagesare significant. Implementing the master planwill reduce damages significantly. In the case of a1-in-30-year flood with an A1FI emissions scenario,implementing the master plan will reduce damagesto buildings by 74 percent (relative to A1FI-EX).Income losses from climate changeassociated floods will increase by 9 to 16percentFloods will result in income or revenue losses toindividuals and firms. A 1-in-30-year flood withFigure 4.7 ■ Damages to Buildingsfrom a 1-in-30-year Flood(2008 PHP)60,000,000,00050,000,000,00040,000,000,00030,000,000,00020,000,000,00010,000,000,0000P30SQ EXP30SQ MPP30B1 EXSource: Based on estimations in Muto et al. (2010).P30B1 MPDamages to BuildingsP30A1FI EXP30A1FI MPAssessing Damage Costs and Prioritizing Adaptation Options | 63
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
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policy implications have broader re
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2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
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Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
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Return periods considered 18In this
Page 32 and 33: Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
Page 36 and 37: sion and distribution lines, and en
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
Page 40 and 41: prices and the same prices are appl
Page 43 and 44: 3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
Page 45 and 46: Table 3.2 ■ Bangkok Monthly Avera
Page 47 and 48: Estimation of storm surge in the ca
Page 49 and 50: Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
Page 89 and 90: Marikina River areas through a dam,
Page 91 and 92: Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the
Page 93 and 94: of reducing vulnerability of the po
Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
Page 97 and 98: open land use is expected to be flo
Page 99 and 100: hydrometeorological data, yielding
Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
Page 106 and 107: a paper commissioned by JICA (Sugiy
Page 108 and 109: mercial and industrial establishmen
Page 110 and 111: ADB. The selection and prioritizati
Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
Page 115: of people and institutions to manag
Page 120: THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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