Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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Uncertainty in the estimation of costsThese land-based estimates represent a first approximationof potential losses. There remainsconsiderable uncertainty as to how land valuesmay be impacted by increases in the frequency orduration of flooding. To the extent that the impactsof existing flood events (climate variability) havealready been capitalized in the price of land, theabove results should be interpreted as the possiblechanges in land values resulting from additional(and as of now unexpected) days of flooding resultingfrom climate change.Using the GDP loss estimation method (Table4.14), the cost of regular flooding in terms of GDPloss is estimated to be about VND 806,831 billion($49.5 billion) in present value terms. The cost ofextreme flooding is estimated to be approximatelyVND 7,978 billion ($0.49 billion).Table 4.13 ■ Expected Cost of Flooding based on Quadratic Relationship betweenDuration of Flooding and Land Values in HCMCFlooded area (ha) Average duration (days) Land valueExpected cost (billion VND)District Regular Extreme Regular Extreme (1,000VND/sq.m) Regular Extreme1 34 249 81 12 22,410 380 602 3,036 4,115 127 22 1,556 5,719 2333 0 105 0 0 17,407 0 04 78 348 21 6 7,369 19 75 12 243 95 10 12,946 103 246 45 594 4 2 8,508 0 27 1,004 2,451 52 9 4,070 830 618 655 1,768 12 4 4,318 31 99 5,877 6,696 140 28 1,621 14,014 63910 30 198 88 11 10,759 189 1911 14 99 73 11 7,245 40 712 2,241 2,465 140 29 2,043 6,735 318Go Vap 184 455 65 12 4,072 237 20Binh Thanh 685 1,383 62 10 10,127 2,001 105Phu Nhuan 0 9 0 0 9,234 0 0Thu Duc 1,593 1,913 95 21 3,995 4,312 253Cu Chi 7,234 10,875 117 26 717 5,330 396Hoc Mon 3,538 5,040 155 35 1,237 7,892 573Nha Be 7,948 8,421 95 20 1,778 9,572 450Can Gio 46,435 48,486 88 20 423 11,417 616Tan Phu 0 45 0 0 4,796 0 0Tan Binh 0 58 0 1 4,934 0 0Binh Tan 917 2,300 29 12 1,932 112 48Binh Chanh 18,890 22,057 83 24 3,217 31,423 3,068Total 100,450 120,372 VND 100,358 6,905Total (USD) 6.156083 0.4235612Source: ADB (2010). Some differences due to exchange rate variations.1 USD=16302.2570 | Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report
Table 4.14 ■ Present Value of the Cost of Floods up to 2050 using the GDPEstimation MethodDistrictRegular FloodingGDP Loss (VND)Extreme FloodingGDP Loss (VND)TotalGDP Loss (VND)District 1 4,262,678,022,700 118,930,920,400 4,381,608,943,100District 2 91,872,408,828,200 684,250,653,100 92,556,659,481,300District 3 — 1,045,570,300 1,045,570,300District 4 2,111,546,363,400 79,830,492,300 2,191,376,855,700District 5 2,036,113,916,300 63,099,964,700 2,099,213,881,000District 6 102,479,383,000 23,505,283,400 125,984,666,400District 7 23,901,066,736,700 319,603,147,100 24,220,669,883,800District 8 3,089,545,724,600 162,117,638,100 3,251,663,362,700District 9 203,476,562,493,300 1,573,188,396,600 205,049,750,889,900District 10 5,608,083,746,600 104,469,939,500 5,712,553,686,100District 11 1,631,296,447,400 36,684,956,800 1,667,981,404,200District 12 107,560,392,251,700 816,151,762,100 108,376,544,013,800District Go Vap 13,980,278,430,700 30,422,891,000 14,010,701,321,700District Tan Binh — 1,135,984,100 1,135,984,100District Binh Thanh 43,871,270,790,100 414,883,343,800 44,286,154,133,900District Phu Nhuan — 2,004,000 2,004,000District Thu Duc 59,101,002,606,400 533,992,286,200 59,634,994,892,600District Cu Chi 28,955,319,716,000 365,741,723,400 29,321,061,439,400District Hoc Mon 44,762,782,087,100 565,835,862,900 45,328,617,950,000District Binh Chanh 97,469,697,076,900 1,276,837,444,400 98,746,534,521,300District Nha Be 42,592,220,679,200 331,433,560,700 42,923,654,239,900District Can Gio 24,169,804,222,200 206,645,566,200 24,376,449,788,400District Tan Phu — 23,680,600 23,680,600District Binh Tan 6,276,999,023,500 268,297,958,200 6,545,296,981,700Total 806,831,548,546,000 7,978,131,029,900 814,809,679,575,900USD 49,492,036,286 489,388,338 49,981,424,624Source: ADB (2010). Some differences due to exchange rate variations.1 USD=16302.25Table 4.15 presents a summary of the costestimates from HCMC based on different methodologies.In summary, a first approximation of thecosts of climate change for regular flooding eventsis between $6.15 billion and $49.5 billion in presentvalue terms, and between $0.42 billion and $6.9billion for extreme flooding. 57The results of the two damage valuations showconsiderable divergence, with GDP figures suggestingdouble the damage costs achieved usingthe land value methodology. This may result fromtwo different factors. First, it is well known that administrativelydetermined land prices (as opposed57The HCMC numbers are much higher than the damagecosts associated with flooding in Manila and Bangkok.However, as previously noted, these numbers reflect thesum of a series of annual damages that are expected to occurfrom now up to 2050 and are not directly comparablewith the damage costs of one event in Bangkok or Manila.Assessing Damage Costs and Prioritizing Adaptation Options | 71
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© 2010 The International Bank for
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Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
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AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
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Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
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For each city, complex hydrometeoro
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infrastructure but a high emission
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these include strategies that focus
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policy implications have broader re
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2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
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Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
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Return periods considered 18In this
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Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
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Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
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sion and distribution lines, and en
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Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
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Page 43 and 44: 3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulner
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Page 49 and 50: Climate Change Impact and Adaptatio
Page 51 and 52: Figure 3.5a ■ Affected Condensed
Page 53 and 54: Manila’s current climate—Tropic
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.6 ■ Manila Climate Change
Page 57 and 58: Figure 3.10 ■ Areas of High Popul
Page 59 and 60: is also a key economic and financia
Page 61 and 62: Box 3.3 ■ HCMC in 2050Future land
Page 63 and 64: original swamp land on which the ci
Page 65 and 66: from 68 percent to 71 percent; that
Page 67 and 68: Table 3.15 ■ Districts Affected b
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.16 ■ Effects of Flooding
Page 71 and 72: 4Assessing Damage Costsand Prioriti
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2 ■ Summary of Flood and
Page 75 and 76: uilt outside the cities and are not
Page 77 and 78: ■■■■■■For the eastern p
Page 79 and 80: Table 4.6 ■ Flood Damage Costs Wi
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.5 ■ Loss Exceedance Curv
Page 85 and 86: Box 4.3 ■ Increased Time Costs an
Page 87 and 88: Table 4.11 ■ Adaptation Investmen
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Page 95 and 96: 5Conclusions andPolicy Implications
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Page 101 and 102: BibliographyAllen, M. R., and W. J.
Page 103: Reduction: Inventory and Prospect.
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Page 108 and 109: mercial and industrial establishmen
Page 110 and 111: ADB. The selection and prioritizati
Page 113 and 114: AnnexCAdaptation to IncreasedFloodi
Page 115: of people and institutions to manag
Page 120: THE WORLD BANK1818 H Street, NWWash
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Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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