Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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3Estimating Flood Impactsand Vulnerabilitiesin Coastal CitiesIn this chapter, the main findings of the hydrologicalanalysis—in terms of potential increasein flooding in 2050 under different scenarios—are presented. For each city, the analysis presentsthe main drivers of flooding, how climate changeis likely to influence flooding, and the potentialphysical consequences on the city and its residentsin 2050. The findings from the hydrological modelingwere overlaid on GIS maps, thus relating flooddepth/duration and area flooded (estimated fromthe hydrologic modeling) with maps of futureland use; location of residential, commercial, andindustrial areas; and essential infrastructure andenvironmental resources. Use of GIS enables avisual mapping of the area inundated and districtsand sectors likely to be at risk from flooding underdifferent scenarios in 2050. 29 For the purposes of thisreport, only a selection of GIS maps is included; amore extensive set of maps can be obtained fromthe city-level studies.Estimating Future ClimaterelatedImpacts in BangkokThe Bangkok Municipal Region covers an area ofabout 1,569 sq kms and is located in the delta of theChao Phraya River basin—the largest river basin inThailand, covering an area of 159,000 sq kms, or 35percent of the total land area of the country (Figure3.1). The basin area is flat at an average elevationof 1–2m from mean sea level. Some areas are at seaFigure 3.1 ■ Location of Bangkok in theChao Praya River BasinTHAILANDCHAO PHRAYA RIVER18°M YA N M A RAndamanSea0 100KILOMETERSPROJECT RIVERSELECTED CITIESNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONALBOUNDARYThis map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.MYANMARNAYPYIDAW15°NArea ofMapAndamanSea15°N15°NLAOP.D.R.VIENTIANETHAILANDBANGKOKGulf ofThailandPHNOMPENH100°E MALAYSIA 105°EHANOIVIETNAMCAMBODIASource: Thailand map IBRD 37477.14°Chiang MaiTakPathum ThaniNonthaburiBangkokSamut PrakanRatchaburi SamutSakhonGulf ofThailand100°level due to land subsidence. Bangkok straddlesthe Chao Phraya River approximately 33 kilometersabove the Gulf of Thailand.29For 2050, projected land use changes—where available—were incorporated into the GIS to assess the future impacts.YomKamphaengPhetPing100°Nakhon SawanUthai ThaniSupham BuriTha ChinPhraeUttaraditPhichitNanChainatChao PhrayaNanT H A I L A N DSing BuriThahanbok Lop BuriAng ThongL A OP. D . R .Phra Nakhon Si AyutthayaIBRD 37477102°102°20°18°16°14°JANUARY 201023
Page 4 and 5: © 2010 The International Bank for
Page 7 and 8: Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated
Page 9: AcknowledgmentsThis synthesis repor
Page 13 and 14: Executive SummaryIntroduction and R
Page 15 and 16: For each city, complex hydrometeoro
Page 17 and 18: infrastructure but a high emission
Page 19: these include strategies that focus
Page 23 and 24: policy implications have broader re
Page 25: 2Methodologies forDownscaling, Hydr
Page 28 and 29: Table 2.1 ■ Climate Change Foreca
Page 30 and 31: Return periods considered 18In this
Page 32 and 33: Figure 2.2 ■ Manila Rainfall-Runo
Page 34 and 35: Figure 2.3 ■ Estimation of Damage
Page 36 and 37: sion and distribution lines, and en
Page 38 and 39: Figure 2.5 ■ Possible Relationshi
Page 40 and 41: prices and the same prices are appl
Page 44 and 45: Importance of BMR to the regionalec
Page 46 and 47: activities that are being considere
Page 48 and 49: 2.1.2 Land Subsidence 2.1.2 Land Su
Page 50 and 51: 1-in-30-year floods. There are stee
Page 52 and 53: 15°N10°NThis map was produced by
Page 54 and 55: severe flooding caused by Typhoon
Page 56 and 57: Table 3.8 ■ Manila: Comparison of
Page 58 and 59: Table 3.9 ■ Affected Length of Ro
Page 60 and 61: Table 3.11 ■ Ho Chi Minh City: Mo
Page 62 and 63: Box 3.4 ■ Overview of Downscaling
Page 64 and 65: Table 3.12 ■ Climate Change Param
Page 66 and 67: y 2050 under the A2 scenario. As Ta
Page 68 and 69: Figure 3.14a ■ HCMC Poverty Rates
Page 70 and 71: Potential increase in drought in 20
Page 72 and 73: over the period of analysis. These
Page 74 and 75: Damage costs in 2050 are largelyatt
Page 76 and 77: Damage costs constitute approximate
Page 78 and 79: Figure 4.3 ■ Maximum Inundation A
Page 80 and 81: Analysis of Damage CostsRelated to
Page 82 and 83: Table 4.8 ■ Flood Damage Costs in
Page 84 and 85: Table 4.9 ■ Income and Revenue Lo
Page 86 and 87: aising dikes, and improved pumping
Page 88 and 89: Table 4.12 ■ Investment Costs and
Page 90 and 91: Uncertainty in the estimation of co
Page 92 and 93:
Table 4.15 ■ Summary of Present V
Page 94 and 95:
Table 4.16 ■ Proposed Implementat
Page 96 and 97:
a 30 percent increase in the flood-
Page 98 and 99:
dumping of solid waste into the cit
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consider broad institutional issues
Page 102 and 103:
IMF. 2009. World Economic Outlook D
Page 105 and 106:
AnnexAVulnerability of KolkataMetro
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estimates. All these scenarios (wit
Page 109 and 110:
sustain significant damage. Due to
Page 111:
AnnexBScenarios Applied in theHydro
Page 114 and 115:
Accommodate—a traditionapproach i
Page 117:
AnnexDComparison of Costsacross Cit
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Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis

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