Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for Renewable ... - EGEC

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2StrategicTransport 32%Research and Innovation Agenda for Renewable Heating & CoolingRenewable Heating & Cooling: Vision, Opportunities and ChallengesHouseholds 42% Services 14%1000Non-renewRenewable9.6% 9.9%2004 2005Mtoe6005004003002001000High temperatureLow temperatureRDPResidential (rural areas)Residential (urban areas)70 Services60504030201002006/07 2020 2030 2050 2006/07 2020 2030 2050MtoeMtoe600500400300200100Figure 4 – Projections of heating and cooling demand in the EU. Source: RHC-Platform (2011)0The theoretical and technical potential of renewable energy sources could exceedEurope’s total heating and cooling consumption. Nevertheless, discovering how to700economically realise such potential remains a challenge. The optimal combination 8000 ofrenewable 600 energy technologies to meet the thermal energy needs of a given user 7000 dependson local conditions such as population density, intensity of use, quantity and quality of availableenergy infrastructure and resource availability. The majority of energy use50060005000takes place 400 in urban areas, characterised by higher population density, where district heatingand cooling networks can represent a critical infrastructure to ensure 4000large-300scale integration of renewable energy sources.3000200Renewable heatIn 2020 over 25% of heat consumed in the European Union Heat could demand BAU 2000be generated with100renewable energy technologies. The large majority of renewable Heat demand heating RDP and 1000coolingwill still be 0 produced from biomass sources, although solar thermal is expected to 0 have thehighest average 2006/07 growth rate 2020 among the 2030 renewable energy technologies 2050 for heatingand cooling in the decade 2010 – 2020. Increasingly competitive geothermal, aerothermaland hydrothermal heat pumps will gain market shares as efficiencies rise. Enhanced GeothermalSystems (EGS) will be realised in different European regions producing heat attemperatures suitable for both direct use and electricity. Improved thermally driven coolingsystems (e.g. from solar or heat pump technologies) will make it possible to cover around5% of cooling 700 demand from the service and residential sectors by 2020.8000solar thermal600By 2030 renewable aero/hydro heating HP7000and cooling technologies could supply over half of the heatused in 500geothermal HPEurope. Improved compact and seasonal thermal energy storage systems 6000 willgeothermal deepbe crucial to meeting the heating and cooling requirements in buildings. In most of Europe,400 biomass heat5000biomass will be used for small-scale heating as well as industrial processes; 24000nd and 3 rdgeneration 300 biofuels will also play an important role. Solar thermal will satisfy approx. 15%3000of the overall European low temperature heat demand and it will be increasingly able to meet200the heat demand of medium and higher temperature industrial processes. Geothermal 2000 heatpumps and 100 geothermal direct use will be firmly established, especially in agricultural 1000 applicationsand for pre-heating industrial processes requiring heat over 250°C. Aerothermal00and hydrothermal 2006/07 heat pumps 2020will be widely used 2030 in residential and non-residential 2050buildings.A smart energy exchange network will enable heat at different temperatures from multiplelow-carbon energy sources to be shared efficiently between different customers.MtoeMtoeBy 2050 the combined energy supply of RHC technologies could reach close to 600 Mtoe,representing more than the expected total demand for heating and cooling. Biomass couldcontribute 231 Mtoe, while geothermal could account for 150 Mtoe and solar thermal for 133Mtoe (Figure 6). Aerothermal and hydrothermal technologies are expected to provide at least75 Mtoe of heat. Being cost-competitive with any alternative fossil fuel, RHC will be used indistrict heating & cooling, small-scale hybrid systems and advanced energy stores. Whetherthese targets are met or not depends on economic growth, the evolution of heat demand andthe relative price of alternative fuels, all of which are hard to predict 40 years into the future.Big technical challenges must be overcome to make renewable energy technologies fullycost competitive.TWhTWh8
M200300100200010002006/072006/072030102002020 2030 2050 10 2006/0702020 2030 2050 2006/07M2020 2030 2050RenewableHeating & CoolingEuropean Technology Platform2020 2030 2050MtoeMtoe7008000600 700500 600400 500700080006000700050006000400030050004003000200Renewable heat4000300Heat demand BAU 20003000100 200HeatRenewabledemandheatRDP 1000Heat demand BAU 2000100 0Heat demand RDP010002006/07 2020 2030 2050002006/07 2020 2030 2050TWhTWhFigure 5 - Heating supply from renewable energy sources in EU. Source: RHC-Platform (2011)MtoeMtoe700600 7008000solar thermalaero/hydro HP70008000500geothermal solar HP6000600geothermal aero/hydro deep HP70005000400 500 biomass geothermal heatHP6000geothermal deep4000300 400 biomass heat500030004000200 30020003000100 200100 02006/07 2020 203010002000020501000002006/07 2020 2030 2050TWhTWhFigure 6 - Heating potential by renewable energy sources in EU. Source: RHC-Platform (2011)The enormous challenges ahead are not only technological. Tomorrow’s energy systems aredefined by the policy and legal frameworks we adopt today, which must provide the rightconditions to attract large-scale public and private investments. Public support will increaseas the full potential of social benefits, such as green jobs, is realised. Successful deploymentof renewable energy technologies also has to take into account the needs of end-users andof others affected by the technology 17 .In a global market, the main competitive strength of the European RHC industry is the highquality of its technologies. Recognition of EU-wide CEN standards, certification and qualitylabels must therefore be increased. The information provided should not only include therelative efficiency, but also the annual running cost, greenhouse gas emissions and the expectedsystem lifetime. Market deployment also ought to be supported through policies favouringa stable and reliable framework for investors and at offsetting the high upfront costsassociated with RHC.17For instance, the EuropeanEnvironment Agency (EEA)estimated costs of air pollutionfrom the 10,000 largestpolluting facilities in Europebetween € 102 and 169 billionin 2009.Unlocking the potential of renewable heating and cooling (RHC) technologies requiresa substantial intensification of R&D activities as well as policy measures to overcomenon-technological barriers. The comprehensive agenda of priorities presented in thispublication gives decision-makers from the public and private sector a concrete toolto put the Common Vision into practice.9
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