13.07.2015 Views

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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Figure 7 (USD3.75/day 2005 PPP line): Bootstrappeddifferences between estimated and true povertylikelihoods <strong>for</strong> households in a large sample (n =16,384) from <strong>the</strong> validation sample, with confidenceintervals, 2004 scorecard applied to 2002 APISDifference between estimate and true valueConfidence interval (+/– percentage points)Score Diff. 90-percent 95-percent 99-percent0–4 +0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05–9 –0.3 0.1 0.1 0.110–14 +0.2 0.2 0.3 0.415–19 –1.0 0.6 0.6 0.620–24 –0.6 0.5 0.5 0.525–29 –0.5 1.0 1.2 1.530–34 +0.4 1.1 1.4 1.935–39 –0.6 1.2 1.4 1.940–44 +0.1 1.6 2.0 2.545–49 –3.9 2.9 3.0 3.350–54 –3.6 2.9 3.2 3.755–59 –3.8 3.2 3.5 3.960–64 –1.9 2.9 3.4 4.365–69 –1.9 2.7 3.2 4.570–74 –3.7 3.3 3.5 4.275–79 –2.9 2.8 3.1 4.080–84 –1.0 3.1 3.5 4.485–89 –0.2 1.7 2.0 2.890–94 –2.2 3.7 4.3 5.395–100 –0.4 1.0 1.2 1.7148

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