A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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n2z= 2 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟ ˆp⎝ c ⎠*. (6)Still, ˆp*could be anything between 0–1, so (6) is not enough to compute samplesize. The estimate of ˆp*must be based on data available before baseline measurement.Suppose that the observed relationship between ˆp*and the variance of thebaseline poverty rate p ( − )⋅ 1 is—as in Peru, see Schreiner (2008b)—close tobaselinep baseline[ ⋅ ( − )]pˆ *= 0.0085 + 0.206 ⋅ p baseline1 p baseline. Of course, pbaselineis not known before baselinemeasurement, but it is reasonable to use as its expected value a previously observedpoverty rate. Given this and a poverty line, a sample-size formula for a single sampledirectly measured twice for the Philippines (once after July 2004 and then again later)is:n2{ 0 0085 + 0 206 ⋅ [ p ⋅ ( 1 − )]}z= 2 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟ ⋅ . .2004p2004. (7)⎝ c ⎠As usual, (7) is multiplied by α to get scoring’s sample-size formula:n2⎛ z ⎞= α ⋅ 2 ⋅ ⎜ ⎟ ⋅ { 0.0085 + 0.206 ⋅ [ p2004⋅ ( 1 − p2004)]}. (8)⎝ c ⎠The formula for the standard error of scoring’s estimate of change in a single2 ⋅ α ⋅ { 0.0085 + 0.206 ⋅ [ˆ p ( pˆ2004⋅ 1 −2004)]}group’s poverty rate is then σ =.nIn Peru (the only other country for which there is an estimate, Schreiner, 2008b),the average α across years and poverty lines is about 1.8.39
To illustrate the use of (8), suppose the desired confidence level is 90 percent (z= 1.64), the desired confidence interval is 2.0 percentage points (c = 0.02), the povertyline is the national line, and the sample will first be scored in 2009. The before-baselinepoverty rate is 31.4 percent ( p 2004= 0.314, Figure 2), and suppose α = 1.8. Then the{ }1.64n⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟=⎝ 0.02 ⎠baseline sample size is = 1. 8 ⋅ 2 ⋅ ⋅ 0.0085 + 0.206 ⋅ [ 0.314 ⋅ ( 1 − 0.314)]1,280. Of course, the same group of 1,280 households is scored at follow-up as well.2For a given confidence level and confidence interval, sample sizes are generallysmaller when one sample is scored twice than when there are two independent samples.40
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 5 and 6: Poverty scoring can also be used fo
Page 7 and 8: points or less for estimates of cha
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
Page 25 and 26: The scorecard in Figure 1 is ready
Page 27 and 28: If not determined by other factors,
Page 29 and 30: 6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty
Page 31 and 32: 6.2 Accuracy of estimates of househ
Page 33 and 34: The 90-percent confidence interval
Page 35 and 36: 7. Estimates of a group’s poverty
Page 37 and 38: To derive a sample-size formula (or
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41 and 42: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
Page 43 and 44: 2002 in the Philippines is the diff
Page 45: from 0.63 to 0.77 (Figure 10), sugg
Page 49 and 50: the four possible targeting outcome
Page 51 and 52: As an alternative to assigning bene
Page 53 and 54: at a point in time is always less t
Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58: Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
Page 59 and 60: Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
Page 61 and 62: Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
Page 67 and 68: Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
Page 69 and 70: National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
Page 73 and 74: Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
Page 77 and 78: Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
Page 79 and 80: Figure 13 (National poverty line):
Page 81 and 82: Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
Page 83 and 84: Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
Page 85 and 86: Figure 12 (National food poverty li
Page 87 and 88: USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
Page 89 and 90: Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
Page 91 and 92: Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
Page 93 and 94: Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
Page 95 and 96: Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 7 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
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USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
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Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
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Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
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Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
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Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
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Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
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USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
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Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
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Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
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Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
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Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
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Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
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Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
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Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
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Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
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Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
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Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
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Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
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Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
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Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
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Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
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Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
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Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
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Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
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Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
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Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
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Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
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Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
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Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
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Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
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Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
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Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
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Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
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Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
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Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
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Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
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Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
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Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
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Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
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Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
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Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
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Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
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Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
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Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
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Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
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Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
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Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
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Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
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Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
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A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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