A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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poverty will be the same as in the data used to build the scorecard. 2 Of course, thisassumption—ubiquitous and inevitable in predictive modeling—holds only partly.When applied to the 2004 validation sample for the Philippines with n = 16,384,the difference between scorecard estimates of groups’ poverty rates and the true rates ata point in time is +0.6 percentage points for the national line, and the average absolutedifference is 0.4 percentage points across all eight lines. These differences are due tosampling variation and not bias; the average difference would be zero if the whole 2004APIS were to be repeatedly redrawn and divided into sub-samples before repeating theentire scorecard-building process.When the scorecard built from the 2004 construction and calibration samples isapplied to the 2004 validation sample and the entire 2002 APIS with n = 16,384, thedifference between scorecard estimates of changes in groups’ poverty rates and the truechanges is –0.5 percentage points (national line). Across all eight lines, the averageabsolute difference is 1.4 percentage points. These differences are due to samplingvariation, changes in poverty lines over time, changes in data quality, and changes inthe relationship between indicators and poverty.The 90-percent confidence intervals for these estimates are +/–0.5 percentagepoints or less for estimates of a poverty rate at a point in time, and +/–0.7 percentage2Bias may also result from changes in the quality of data collection, from changes overtime to the national poverty lines, from imperfect adjustment of poverty lines toaccount for differences in cost-of-living across time or geographic regions, or fromsampling variation across income surveys.5
points or less for estimates of changes in a poverty rate between two points in time. Forn = 1,024, the 90-percent intervals are +/–2.0 and +/–1.7 percentage points or less.Section 2 below describes data and poverty lines. Section 3 places the newscorecard here in the context of existing exercises for the Philippines. Sections 4 and 5describe scorecard construction and offer practical guidelines for use. Sections 6 and 7detail the estimation of households’ poverty likelihoods and of groups’ poverty rates ata point in time. Section 8 discusses estimating changes in poverty rates. Section 9covers targeting. The final section is a summary.6
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 5: Poverty scoring can also be used fo
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
Page 25 and 26: The scorecard in Figure 1 is ready
Page 27 and 28: If not determined by other factors,
Page 29 and 30: 6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty
Page 31 and 32: 6.2 Accuracy of estimates of househ
Page 33 and 34: The 90-percent confidence interval
Page 35 and 36: 7. Estimates of a group’s poverty
Page 37 and 38: To derive a sample-size formula (or
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41 and 42: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
Page 43 and 44: 2002 in the Philippines is the diff
Page 45 and 46: from 0.63 to 0.77 (Figure 10), sugg
Page 47 and 48: To illustrate the use of (8), suppo
Page 49 and 50: the four possible targeting outcome
Page 51 and 52: As an alternative to assigning bene
Page 53 and 54: at a point in time is always less t
Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58:
Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
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Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
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Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
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Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
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Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
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Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
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National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
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Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
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Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
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Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
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Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
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Figure 13 (National poverty line):
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Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
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Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
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Figure 12 (National food poverty li
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
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Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
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USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
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Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
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Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
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Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
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Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
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Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
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USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
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Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
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Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
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Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
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Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
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Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
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Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
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Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
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Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
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Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
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Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
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Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
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Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
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Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
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Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
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Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
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Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
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Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
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Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
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Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
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Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
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Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
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Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
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Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
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Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
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Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
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Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
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Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
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Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
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Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
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Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
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Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
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Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
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Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
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Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
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Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
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Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
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Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
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Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
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Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
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Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
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Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
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Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
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A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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