A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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6. Estimates of household poverty likelihoodsThe sum of scorecard points for a household is called the score. For thePhilippines, scores range from 0 (most likely below a poverty line) to 100 (least likelybelow a poverty line). While higher scores indicate less likelihood of being below apoverty line, the scores themselves have only relative units. For example, doubling thescore does not double the likelihood of being above a poverty line.To get absolute units, scores must be converted to poverty likelihoods, that is,probabilities of being below a poverty line. This is done via simple look-up tables. Forthe example of the national line, scores of 10–14 have a poverty likelihood of 91.5percent, and scores of 40–44 have a poverty likelihood of 36.8 percent (Figure 4).The poverty likelihood associated with a score varies by poverty line. Forexample, scores of 40–44 are associated with a poverty likelihood of 36.8 percent for thenational line but 12.4 percent for the food line. 1515Starting with Figure 4, most figures have sixteen versions, one for each of the eightpoverty lines for the scorecard applied to the validation sample, and one for each of theeight poverty lines for the scorecard applied to the entire 2002 APIS. To keep themstraight, they are grouped by poverty line. Single tables that pertain to all poverty linesare placed with the tables for the national line.21
6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty likelihoodsA given score is non-parametrically associated (“calibrated”) with a povertylikelihood by defining the poverty likelihood as the share of households in thecalibration sub-sample who have the score and who are below a given poverty line.For the example of the national line (Figure 5), there are 5,198 (normalized)households in the calibration sub-sample with a score of 20–24, of whom 4,205(normalized) are below the poverty line. The estimated poverty likelihood associatedwith a score of 20–24 is then 80.9 percent, because 4,205 ÷ 5,198 = 80.9 percent.To illustrate with the national line and a score of 40–44, there are 8,846(normalized) households in the calibration sample, of whom 3,257 (normalized) arebelow the line (Figure 5). Thus, the poverty likelihood for this score is 3,257 ÷ 8,846 =36.8 percent.The same method is used to calibrate scores with estimated poverty likelihoodsfor the other poverty lines.Figure 6 shows, for all scores, the likelihood that income falls in a rangedemarcated by two adjacent poverty lines. For example, the daily income of someonewith a score of 35–39 falls in the following ranges with probability:• 18.6 percent below the food line• 30.3 percent between the food and national lines• 26.1 percent between the national and USD2.50/day 2005 PPP lines• 17.2 percent between the USD2.50/day 2005 PPP and USD3.75/day lines• 4.6 percent between the USD3.75/day 2005 PPP and USD5.00/day lines• 3.1 percent above the USD5.00/day 2005 PPP line22
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 5 and 6: Poverty scoring can also be used fo
Page 7 and 8: points or less for estimates of cha
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
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Page 35 and 36: 7. Estimates of a group’s poverty
Page 37 and 38: To derive a sample-size formula (or
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41 and 42: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
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Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58: Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
Page 59 and 60: Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
Page 61 and 62: Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
Page 67 and 68: Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
Page 69 and 70: National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
Page 73 and 74: Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
Page 77 and 78: Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
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Figure 13 (National poverty line):
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Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
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Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
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Figure 12 (National food poverty li
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
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Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
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USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
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Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
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Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
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Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
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Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
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Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
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USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
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Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
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Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
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Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
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Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
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Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
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Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
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Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
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Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
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Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
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Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
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Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
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Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
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Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
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Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
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Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
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Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
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Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
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Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
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Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
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Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
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Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
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Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
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Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
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Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
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Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
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Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
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Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
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Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
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Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
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Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
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Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
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Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
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Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
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Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
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Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
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Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
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Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
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Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
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Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
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Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
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Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
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Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
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A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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