13.07.2015 Views

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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Figure 7 (National poverty line): Bootstrappeddifferences between estimated and true povertylikelihoods <strong>for</strong> households in a large sample (n =16,384) from <strong>the</strong> validation sample, with confidenceintervals, 2004 scorecard applied to validationsampleDifference between estimate and true valueConfidence interval (+/– percentage points)Score Diff. 90-percent 95-percent 99-percent0–4 +1.9 3.3 3.8 5.25–9 –3.9 2.7 2.8 3.010–14 +3.3 2.9 3.4 4.715–19 +1.3 2.6 3.1 4.020–24 +1.4 2.4 2.8 3.525–29 –1.3 2.6 3.1 4.430–34 +1.8 2.6 3.0 4.135–39 +0.5 2.3 2.8 3.840–44 +3.5 2.1 2.5 3.145–49 –0.9 1.7 2.0 2.850–54 +0.1 1.6 2.0 2.555–59 +0.7 1.1 1.3 1.960–64 –0.0 1.0 1.2 1.665–69 +0.5 0.7 0.9 1.270–74 +0.3 0.6 0.7 0.975–79 +0.6 0.5 0.7 0.980–84 –0.7 0.7 0.8 1.085–89 –0.2 0.2 0.3 0.390–94 +1.5 0.0 0.0 0.095–100 –1.4 1.8 1.9 2.366

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