13.07.2015 Views

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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Figure 7 (USAID “Extreme” poverty line): Bootstrappeddifferences between estimated and true povertylikelihoods <strong>for</strong> households in a large sample (n =16,384) from <strong>the</strong> validation sample, with confidenceintervals, 2004 scorecard applied to validationsampleDifference between estimate and true valueConfidence interval (+/– percentage points)Score Diff. 90-percent 95-percent 99-percent0–4 +0.0 5.2 6.3 7.65–9 –4.4 4.2 4.7 6.410–14 –9.0 6.6 7.0 7.715–19 +0.9 3.6 4.1 5.320–24 –3.1 2.9 3.3 4.525–29 –2.5 2.6 3.1 4.030–34 +0.9 2.1 2.4 3.135–39 –1.5 1.8 2.1 2.840–44 +2.6 1.4 1.6 2.045–49 –0.1 1.0 1.2 1.650–54 –0.3 1.0 1.1 1.455–59 +0.8 0.5 0.6 0.760–64 –0.4 0.6 0.7 0.965–69 –0.7 0.6 0.7 0.870–74 +0.2 0.1 0.2 0.275–79 –0.2 0.2 0.3 0.480–84 +0.0 0.0 0.0 0.085–89 –0.2 0.2 0.3 0.390–94 +1.5 0.0 0.0 0.095–100 –1.4 1.8 1.9 2.383

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