A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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etween the estimate and the true value is within 0.5 percentage points of the averagedifference. In the specific case of the national line and the validation sample, 90 percentof all samples of n = 16,384 produce estimates that differ from the true value in therange of 0.6 – 0.4 = 0.2 to 0.6 + 0.4 = 1.0 percentage points. This follows because 0.6 isthe average difference, and +/–0.4 is its 90-percent confidence interval. The averagedifference is 0.6 because the average scorecard estimate is too high by 0.6 percentagepoints; it estimates a poverty rate of 32.3 percent for the validation sample, but thetrue value is 31.7 percent (Figure 2).7.2 Sample-size formula for estimates of poverty rates at a pointin timeHow precise are these point-in-time estimates? For a range of sample sizes,Figure 9 reports average differences between estimated and true poverty rates at apoint in time as well as precision (confidence intervals for the differences) for thescorecard applied to 1,000 bootstrap samples from the validation sample.A related question is, How many households should an organization sample if itwants to estimate their poverty rate at a point in time for a desired confidence intervaland confidence level? This practical question was first addressed in Schreiner (2008). 21As in the previous paragraph, the answer lies in Figure 9.21IRIS Center (2007a and 2007b) says that n = 300 is sufficient for USAID reporting. Ifa scorecard is as precise as direct measurement, if the expected (before measurement)poverty rate is 50 percent, and if the confidence level is 90 percent, then n = 30029
To derive a sample-size formula (or equivalently, a formula for standard errors),note first that under direct measurement, the poverty rate can be estimated as thenumber of households observed to be below the poverty line, divided by the number ofall observed households. The formula for sample size n in this case is (Cochran, 1977):n2z=⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟ ⋅ pˆ⋅ ( 1 − pˆ), (1)⎝ c ⎠wherez is⎧1.64for confidence levels of 90 percent⎪⎨1.96for confidence levels of 95 percent⎪⎩2.58 for confidence levels of 99 percent,c is the confidence interval as a proportion(for example, 0.02 for an interval of +/–2 percentage points), andpˆ is the expected (before measurement) proportion of householdsbelow the poverty line.Poverty scorecards, however, do not measure poverty directly, so this formula isnot applicable. To derive a similar sample-size formula for the Philippine scorecard,consider the scorecard applied to the validation sample. Figure 2 shows that theexpected (before measurement) poverty rate pˆ for the national line is 31.3 percent (thatis, the average poverty rate in the construction and calibration sub-samples). In turn, asample size n of 16,384 and a 90-percent confidence level correspond to a confidenceimplies a confidence interval of +/–2.2 percentage points. In fact, USAID has notspecified confidence levels or intervals. Furthermore, the expected poverty rate may notbe 50 percent, and the scorecard could be more or less precise than direct measurement.30
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 5 and 6: Poverty scoring can also be used fo
Page 7 and 8: points or less for estimates of cha
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
Page 25 and 26: The scorecard in Figure 1 is ready
Page 27 and 28: If not determined by other factors,
Page 29 and 30: 6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty
Page 31 and 32: 6.2 Accuracy of estimates of househ
Page 33 and 34: The 90-percent confidence interval
Page 35: 7. Estimates of a group’s poverty
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41 and 42: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
Page 43 and 44: 2002 in the Philippines is the diff
Page 45 and 46: from 0.63 to 0.77 (Figure 10), sugg
Page 47 and 48: To illustrate the use of (8), suppo
Page 49 and 50: the four possible targeting outcome
Page 51 and 52: As an alternative to assigning bene
Page 53 and 54: at a point in time is always less t
Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58: Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
Page 59 and 60: Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
Page 61 and 62: Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
Page 67 and 68: Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
Page 69 and 70: National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
Page 73 and 74: Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
Page 77 and 78: Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
Page 79 and 80: Figure 13 (National poverty line):
Page 81 and 82: Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
Page 83 and 84: Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
Page 85 and 86: Figure 12 (National food poverty li
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
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Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
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USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
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Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
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Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
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Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
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Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
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Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
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USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
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Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
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Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
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Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
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Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
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Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
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Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
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Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
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Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
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Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
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Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
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Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
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Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
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Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
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Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
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Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
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Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
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Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
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Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
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Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
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Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
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Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
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Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
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Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
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Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
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Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
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Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
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Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
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Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
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Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
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Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
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Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
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Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
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Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
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Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
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Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
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Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
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Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
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Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
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Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
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Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
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Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
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Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
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A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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