A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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likelihoods of 80.9, 59.6, and 36.8 percent (national line, Figure 4). The group’s baselineestimated poverty rate is the households’ average poverty likelihood of (80.9 + 59.6 +36.8) ÷ 3 = 59.1 percent.After baseline, two sampling approaches are possible for the follow-up round:• Score a new, independent sample, measuring change by cohort across samples• Score the same sample at follow-up as at baselineBy way of illustration, suppose that a year later on Jan. 1, 2010, the programsamples three additional households who are in the same cohort as the three householdsoriginally sampled (or suppose that the program scores the same three originalhouseholds a second time) and finds that their scores are 25, 35, and 45 (povertylikelihoods of 68.5, 48.9, and 21.1 percent, national line, Figure 4). Their averagepoverty likelihood at follow-up is now (68.5 + 48.9 + 21.1) ÷ 3 = 46.2 percent, animprovement of 59.1 – 46.2 = 12.9 percentage points.This suggests that about one of eight participants crossed the poverty line in2009. 24 Among those who started below the line, about one in five (12.9 ÷ 59.1 = 21.8percent) ended up above the line. 258.3 Accuracy for estimated change in two independent samplesGiven the poverty scorecard built from the construction and calibration sampleswith the 2004 APIS, an estimate of the change in the poverty rate between 2004 and24This is a net figure; some people start above the line and end below it, and vice versa.25Poverty scoring does not reveal the reasons for this change.35
2002 in the Philippines is the difference between the estimated poverty rate in thevalidation sample and the estimated poverty rate in the entire 2002 APIS. Across theeight poverty lines in Figure 10, the absolute differences between this estimate and thetrue value is always 2.4 percentage points or less, and the average absolute difference is1.4 percentage points. These are not far from those in the other tests of estimates ofchange over time (Schreiner, 2008b; Mathiassen, 2008).The difference between the estimated and true poverty rates are consistentlynegative and are similar to the decrease in the poverty rate between the 2002 and 2004APIS in Figure 2. This means that the scorecard estimated essentially no change inpoverty between 2002 and 2004.What explains this? Estimated poverty rates are affected by changes in thedistribution of responses to the scorecard indicators from 2004 to 2002 as follows:• Decreases in poverty are indicated by:⎯ Decrease in the number of children aged 0 to 14⎯ Increase in the education of the female head/spouse⎯ Improvement in the quality of toilet facilities• Increases in poverty are indicated by:⎯ Decrease in the presence of family members with salaried employment⎯ Decrease in the share of families owning a refrigerator⎯ Decrease in the number of television sets ownedAlso, the number of households in the Philippines increased by 6 percent. Theseclues suggest that the scorecard missed the decrease in poverty from 2002 to 2004because it was driven largely by the massive formation of young households. In thesenew households, the female head/spouse has more education than did her mother, thereare few children, and although the new household probably have a better toilet than its36
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 5 and 6: Poverty scoring can also be used fo
Page 7 and 8: points or less for estimates of cha
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
Page 25 and 26: The scorecard in Figure 1 is ready
Page 27 and 28: If not determined by other factors,
Page 29 and 30: 6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty
Page 31 and 32: 6.2 Accuracy of estimates of househ
Page 33 and 34: The 90-percent confidence interval
Page 35 and 36: 7. Estimates of a group’s poverty
Page 37 and 38: To derive a sample-size formula (or
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
Page 45 and 46: from 0.63 to 0.77 (Figure 10), sugg
Page 47 and 48: To illustrate the use of (8), suppo
Page 49 and 50: the four possible targeting outcome
Page 51 and 52: As an alternative to assigning bene
Page 53 and 54: at a point in time is always less t
Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58: Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
Page 59 and 60: Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
Page 61 and 62: Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
Page 67 and 68: Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
Page 69 and 70: National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
Page 73 and 74: Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
Page 77 and 78: Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
Page 79 and 80: Figure 13 (National poverty line):
Page 81 and 82: Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
Page 83 and 84: Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
Page 85 and 86: Figure 12 (National food poverty li
Page 87 and 88: USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
Page 89 and 90: Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
Page 91 and 92: Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
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Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
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Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
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Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
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USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
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Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
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Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
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Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
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Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
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USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
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Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
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Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
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USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
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Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
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Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
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Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
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Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
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Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
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Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
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Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
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Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
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Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
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Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
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Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
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Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
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Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
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Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
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Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
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Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
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Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
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Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
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Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
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Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
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Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
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Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
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Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
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Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
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Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
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Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
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Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
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Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
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Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
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Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
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Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
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Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
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Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
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Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
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Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
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Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
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Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
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Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
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Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
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Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
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Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
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Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
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Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
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Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
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A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines

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