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E-International Scientific Research JournalISSN: 2094-1749 Volume: 2 Issue: 4, 2010Path AnalysisTable 1 shows both the direct and indirect impacts of climatological variables on theTourism Industry in the province over the period.Table 1. Impact of Climatological Variables to TourismVariables Direct Impact Indirect Impact + Indirect Impact = Indirect ImpactVia Energy Via Health To TourismTemperature 0.404 0.034 + -0.036 = -0.002Rainfall 0.0508 0.136 + -0.026 = 0.110Total: 0.0912 0.080Grand Impact = = 0.912 + 0.080 = 17.12 %Table 2 shows the direct and indirect impacts of climatological variables on theAgriculture IndustryTable 2. Impact of Climatological Variables to Agriculture IndustryVariables Direct Impact Indirect Impact + Indirect Impact = Indirect ImpactVia Energy Via Health To AgricultureTemperature -0.125 0.023 + -0.010 = -0.013Rainfall 0.038 0.061 + -0.006 = 0.055Total: -0.087 0.068Grand Impact = -0.087 + 0.068 = -1.9 %Table 3 shows the direct and indirect impacts of climatological variables on theCommercial Sector.Table 3. Impact of Climatological Variables to Commercial SectorVariables Direct Impact Indirect Impact + Indirect Impact = Indirect ImpactVia Energy Via Health To CommerceTemperature 0.312 0.009 + -0.048 = -0.039Rainfall 0.207 0.024 + -0.034 = 0.010Total: 0.519 -0.049Grand Impact = 0.519 + -.049= -1.9 %384
E-International Scientific Research JournalISSN: 2094-1749 Volume: 2 Issue: 4, 2010DiscussionsMonthly average records of both temperature and rainfall over the twelve – monthperiod were not very erratic except for isolated cases in the months of February and March,2010. In January 2010, a high rainfall volume was noted followed by sudden drops in themonths of February and March, 2010. Of the two (temperature or rainfall), the rainfall dataappears to be a better gauge for climatological changes for short period of time because of therelatively higher variances noted.Likewise, data on energy supply appeared to be stable until the months of March, 2010and April, 2010 (not shown) where sudden drops in energy supply were noted. Unfortunately,it was erratic and these months were not covered by the present study.Meanwhile, the data obtained for health showed erratic movement with the months ofAugust and September, 2010 showing high incidence of diseases. Such a data characteristic(relatively high variance) is ideal for determining the compatibility (or incompatibility) ofdiseases noted with the climatological indicators (rainfall and temperature)Extremes in temperature and rainfall adversely affected the agricultural sector whichregistered a negative direct impact index of (-8.70%). In particular, just two months of hightemperatures (March, 2010 and April, 2010) already made a pronounced drop in the farmers’yield and harvest of agricultural crops. Considering the indirect impact of climatologicalconditions (through the energy supply and health status), however, temperature and rainfallwere noted to have negligible positive impact of 6.8%. Over all, extremes in temperature andrainfall translates into a drop in farm productivity by about -1.905%.On the other hand, changes in both temperature an rainfall had positive direct impact(51.9%) on the commercial sector although these jointly had negative negligible indirectimpact (energy + health) on the sector (-4.9%). As a whole, these two climatologicalparameters precipitated a general increase in commercial productivity by a little less than 50%(47%). The net positive impact of a variable temperature and rainfall patterns on thecommercial sector can be explained by the corresponding higher demand for consumerproducts that are needed during rainy season or during long stretches of drought e.g. bottledwater, soft drinks, beverages and others. Thus, while the agricultural sector suffers a set – back(negative impact index) on its productivity due to aberrant weather patterns, the samephenomenon surprisingly spurs more economic activity in the commercial sector.Finally, the tourism industry, as a general rule, is also positively impacted by theobserved climatological parameters (rainfall and temperature). A net positive tourism growthof 17.12% was calculated. However, high temperatures tended to damper the tourism industry(-0.20%) but such negative impact is easily absorbed by the overall robustness of the industryto climate change.ConclusionsThe most easily affected economic sector by changes in climatic pattern is theagricultural sector which is easily and adversely affected by either long stretches of drought or385
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