Development Associates, Inc.Dem<strong>and</strong>Table 1.1 <strong>Kosovo</strong> Dairy Sector Supply <strong>and</strong> Dem<strong>and</strong> ScenariosSwissScenarioGOKScenarioFILScenario(potential dem<strong>and</strong>)Total population 1,800,000 1,800,000 1,800,000Per capita milk consumption,annual (all products) 125.97 139.95 180 lt.Annual national dem<strong>and</strong> liters 226,746,000 251,910,000 324,000,000 lt.Annual national dem<strong>and</strong> - MT 226,746 251,910 324,000 MT.Supply – DomesticPopulation- producing dairycows155,000 155,000 155,000 headMean milk yield per cow/day * 2.7 2.7 2.7 lt.Total domestic production/ day 418,500 418,500 418,500 lt.Annual domestic production, lt. 152,752,500 152,752,500 152,752,500Annual domestic production,MT.152,753 152,753 152,753 MTSupply – ImportsFluid milk products 36,000 42,240 36,000 MTSolid milk products (yogurt) 16,800 22,512 16,800 MTO<strong>the</strong>r solid products(cheese) 6,200 8,303 6,200 MTMilk powder (liquid equivalents) 15,000 20,100 15,000 MTTotal Imports 74,000 99,160 74,000 MTTotal Supply (domestic+imports)226,753 251,913 226,753MTTotal Dem<strong>and</strong> @ x lt. per capita 226,746 251,910 324,000MTMilk surplus or deficit (deficit asnegative)7 3 - 97,248 MT* Mean milk yield per cow assumes 1400 lt/cow/yr. less calf consumption at 400 lt./yr.Source: Swiss project Identification for <strong>the</strong> Dairy Sub-sector, MOD <strong>and</strong> Assessment TeamThe third scenario used in table 1.1 is <strong>the</strong> International Dairy Federation (FIL) projection <strong>of</strong>potential milk consumption at 180 liters per person per year. This scenario shows that, at thislevel <strong>of</strong> consumption, <strong>Kosovo</strong> would need to import over 171,000 MT <strong>of</strong> milk to meet dem<strong>and</strong>.The table clearly demonstrates <strong>the</strong> need to continue developing <strong>the</strong> dairy sector in <strong>Kosovo</strong>.<strong>Evaluation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>USAID</strong>/<strong>Kosovo</strong> <strong>SME</strong> 105 May 2004<strong>and</strong> <strong>Agriculture</strong>/Agribusiness ProgramsVolume I
Development Associates, Inc.IMPROVING VEGETABLE PRODUCTION PROJECT (IVP)BACKGROUNDAs a result <strong>of</strong> an amendment to <strong>the</strong> SC grant, five sub-grants were prepared for implementing anagricultural program to address some deficiencies in this sector in <strong>Kosovo</strong>. 37 One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> subgrantswas for a project to focus on <strong>the</strong> vegetable sub-sector through activities that wouldincrease technology transfer to farm households, improve advisory services available throughFarmers Associations (FAs), develop <strong>the</strong> capacity <strong>of</strong> Rural Development Organizations (RDOs)<strong>and</strong> improve business linkages. These objectives would be accomplished through <strong>the</strong>implementation <strong>of</strong> a 20-month project totaling $ 557, 516. This sub-grant was awarded to CECIin January 2003.STRATEGIC OBJECTIVEThe project’s Strategic Objective is to increase <strong>the</strong> volume <strong>of</strong> marketed <strong>and</strong> processed vegetableproducts in <strong>the</strong> Southwest region, with a special emphasis on Rahovec, Gjakova <strong>and</strong> Prizrenmunicipalities.INTERMEDIARY RESULTSThis SO will be achieved through <strong>the</strong> following Intermediate Results:1. Improved access to market responsive advisory services (resulting from an enhancement in<strong>the</strong> ability <strong>of</strong> one agricultural services provider <strong>and</strong> three (3) Farmer Associations to deliveradvisory services to farmers).2. Increased volume <strong>and</strong> improved quality <strong>of</strong> marketable production surpluses in <strong>the</strong> threetargeted municipalities3. Increased marketing <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> production surpluses (resulting from <strong>the</strong> multiplication <strong>of</strong>business linkages between farmers, <strong>the</strong>ir associations <strong>and</strong> trading <strong>and</strong> processing companiesThe IVP sub-grant became operational just as <strong>the</strong> first years’ growing season approached, so<strong>the</strong>y were able to initiate on-farm demonstration trials in <strong>the</strong> first year. IVP was fortunate inbeing able to team with <strong>the</strong> <strong>Kosovo</strong> Development Center, a local NGO based in Gjakova. Thispartnership was crucial to <strong>the</strong> project getting established <strong>and</strong> initiating <strong>the</strong> first years’ activities.IMPLEMENTATION1. Have activities been properly targeted to achieve <strong>the</strong> objectives?The IVP program has selected seven vegetable varieties plus potatoes (see Quarterly ReportJanuary 2004, page 10, not attached to evaluation documents) for <strong>the</strong>ir technology transfer workwith farmers. These selected crops have a history <strong>of</strong> marketability <strong>and</strong> consumer preference in<strong>Kosovo</strong>. Historically, many <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se vegetable varieties have been exported to o<strong>the</strong>r countries in37 The five sub-sectors addressed in <strong>the</strong> SFS program include dairy, meat <strong>and</strong> feed; poultry – chickens <strong>and</strong> eggs –<strong>and</strong> feed; sheep; vegetables; <strong>and</strong> fruit orchards<strong>Evaluation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>USAID</strong>/<strong>Kosovo</strong> <strong>SME</strong> 106 May 2004<strong>and</strong> <strong>Agriculture</strong>/Agribusiness ProgramsVolume I
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FINAL REPORTVOLUME IEVALUATION OF T
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