Access to substance abuse treatment in the Cape Town metropole ...

adequate fit to the data (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 (8; N= 989) = 64.46, D < .001),even though this model predicted approximately 49% of the variation in access totreatment (Nagelkerke R 2 = .490).For this model, results show that the drug dependence severity scale,SOCRATES scale, TCU PR scale, TCU DH scale, others suggesting the need fortreatment, self-perceived AOD problem recognition, and the age at which drugswere first used all had significant partial effects. A one-unit increase in the drugdependence severity scale resulted in a 2.2 increase in the odds of accessingtreatment. This shows that as drug problem severity increases, the chances ofindividuals accessing treatment increases significantly. Although significant, theeffects of the SOCRATES scale and the TCU problem recognition scale weremuch smaller, with a one-point increase in these scales being associated with theodds of accessing treatment increasing by a multiplicative factor of 1.1. A smalleffect was found for the TCU desire for help scale and the age at which drugswere first used, with a one-unit increase in these variables resulting in the odds ofaccessing treatment decreasing by a multiplicative factor of 0.9. The only otherneed for treatment variables that moderately predicted access to treatment whenthe influence of other variables was controlled for, were “self-perceived AODproblem” and “others suggesting the need for help”, which were both associatedwith almost a tripling of the odds of accessing treatment. These findings suggestthat having a self-perceived AOD problem and have others suggest the need forhelp are stronger predictors of treatment use than readiness to change, treatmentmotivation, and drug dependence severity (Table 10).47