R.J. Godlewski's The Independent Counterterrorist. I, Militia. June ...

ecome increasingly apparent, while the empowerment
of nonstate actors will increase significantly. Although
some strong legitimate states will continue to exist, the
number of what might be termed qualified, restricted,
notional, or hollow and collapsed states is likely to
increase. Moreover, many of these weaker states will be
neutralized, penetrated, or in some cases even captured
by organized crime, terrorists, militias, warlords, and
other violent nonstate actors. In effect, we will continue
to see a world of formal state structures, but at least
some of these will be little more than fronts for these
other actors. In other instances, the emphasis on formal
sovereignty will do little to obscure the dispersal of real
authority and power among what Rapley described
as “autonomous political agents, equipped with their
own resource bases, which make them resistant to a
reimposition of centralized control.” 74
One of the corollaries of this is the spread of
disorder from the zone of weak states and feral cities in
the developing world to the countries of the developed
world. This is recognized, for example, by Collier in
his argument that the problem of the bottom billion
matters, and not just to the . . . people who are living
and dying in 14th century conditions. It matters to us.
The 21st century world of material comfort, global travel,
and economic interdependence will become increasingly
vulnerable to these large islands of chaos. And it
matters now. As the bottom billion diverges from an
increasingly sophisticated world economy, integration
will become harder not easier. 75
This notion of spreading disorder is a very important
antidote to an overly-optimistic Wilsonianism that
sees democracy, liberty, or global economic integration
as cure-alls. Thomas Barnett, for example, in
31