Hornbach-Baumarkt-AG Group
PDF, 3,6 MB - Hornbach Holding AG
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36 GROUP MAN<strong>AG</strong>EMENT REPORT Macroeconomic Framework<br />
GROUP MAN<strong>AG</strong>EMENT REPORT<br />
Macroeconomic Framework<br />
Global economy shifts down a gear<br />
According to figures released by the International Monetary<br />
Fund (IMF), the global economy grew by 3.2% in 2012, and<br />
thus at a notably weaker rate than in the two previous years<br />
and the average for the past decade. Following an upturn in<br />
the first calendar quarter, global economic growth weakened<br />
noticeably once again in the two following quarters. For large<br />
parts of the year, these developments were due in particular<br />
to the debt crisis in the euro area. Through to the fall of 2012,<br />
however, levels of economic growth remained highly subdued<br />
in major emerging economies as well. Only towards the end of<br />
the year were there once again increasing signs of a gradual<br />
rise in global economic momentum. Viewed on a regional level,<br />
data from the German Bundesbank would appear to indicate<br />
that the group of emerging economies stepped up a gear in<br />
the fourth quarter of 2012. In the industrialized economies, by<br />
contrast, the low level of growth seen previously has reverted<br />
to a decline in production, one that has clearly left its mark in<br />
Europe as well.<br />
Europe in recession<br />
Eurostat, the European Union statistics authority, has calculated<br />
that gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2012 calendar<br />
year declined by 0.3% in the European Union as a whole (EU<br />
27), and even by 0.6% in the euro area. The recession already<br />
underway since the fall of 2011 intensified sharply in the<br />
fourth quarter of 2012. Seasonally-adjusted real-term GDP fell<br />
by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively compared with the relatively<br />
stable previous quarter. By the end of 2012, the unfavorable<br />
economic developments within the euro area had spread to<br />
increasing numbers of countries.<br />
As a result, macroeconomic conditions in the nine countries<br />
across Europe in which HORNBACH’s stores are located also<br />
deteriorated increasingly in the fourth quarter of 2012. Based<br />
on the economic data available upon completion of this report,<br />
Germany, which in the first nine months of 2012 had stood<br />
firm as rock in the European storm, also felt a tangible downturn<br />
in economic output. The economic downturn in the Netherlands<br />
and the Czech Republic slowed compared with the<br />
third quarter. However, from a full-year perspective both<br />
countries suffered a marked weakening in their economies in<br />
2012, with GDP downturns of 1.0% and 1.3% respectively. By<br />
contrast, the other countries in our network mostly posted<br />
marginally positive economic growth in a range of 0.2% to<br />
1.0% in 2012, and thus significantly ahead of the EU average.<br />
Slovakia even achieved growth of 2.0%.<br />
GDP growth rates in countries with HORNBACH DIY megastores and garden centers<br />
Percentage change on previous quarter 1 st Quarter 2 nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter 4 th Quarter Calendar Year<br />
Source: Eurostat (calendar year figures) 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 vs. 2011<br />
Germany 0.5 0.3 0.2 (0.6) 0.7<br />
Luxembourg 0.0 0.5 (0.5) 1.6 0.2<br />
Netherlands 0.1 0.2 (1.0) (0.4) (1.0)<br />
Austria 0.4 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.8<br />
Romania (0.1) 0.6 (0.2) 0.4 0.3<br />
Slovakia 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.0<br />
Sweden 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.8<br />
Switzerland 0.5 (0.1) 0.6 0.2 1.0<br />
Czech Republic (0.5) (0.6) (0.4) (0.2) (1.3)<br />
Euro area (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.6) (0.6)<br />
EU 27 (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.5) (0.3)