UGANDA

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<strong>UGANDA</strong> 2c. Quarterly Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015/16–2016/17 __________________ 23 3. Monetary Accounts, FY2012/13–FY2017/18 ___________________________________________________ 24 4. Balance of Payments, FY2012/13–2017/18 ____________________________________________________ 25 5. Banking Sector Indicators, March 2013–June 2016 ____________________________________________ 26 APPENDIX I. Letter of Intent _________________________________________________________________________________ 27 Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies ____________________________ 29 Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding ___________________________________ 46 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3
<strong>UGANDA</strong> BACKGROUND AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 1. The political cycle has complicated policy making. The February 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections and the subsequent events weighed on sentiment. The elections also contributed to fiscal slippages. President Museveni was declared winner with 61 percent of the votes, and is now in his fifth term. Parliament and cabinet took office in June. The new government has reiterated the objective of reaching middle-income status by 2020 through infrastructure investment, agricultural growth, and supporting private sector job creation. 2. The economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally to 4.8 percent in FY2015/16 from 5 percent in the previous year (Figure 1), as the elections and adverse global and regional developments, particularly in neighboring South Sudan, contributed to a slowdown in investments and exports. After a sharp depreciation in 2015, the shilling appreciated and stabilized as market sentiment improved. High frequency indicators suggest a strengthening of economic activity, with growth projected to nudge up to 5 percent in FY2016/17, supported by rising private and public investments. Nevertheless, growth lags behind the rates achieved in Uganda’s recent past and those of regional peers. 12 9 6 3 0 -3 Per capita real GDP growth* (percent) Ethiopia Tanzania Rwanda Uganda Burundi Kenya FY10/11 FY11/12 FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 * Refer to FY data or calculated equivalents. 12 9 6 3 0 -3 3. Despite significant progress over the last decade, poverty remains elevated. The poverty rate has come down from 62.2 percent in 2003 to about 34.6 percent in 2013, under the international poverty line. 1 Vulnerability to poverty also remains high, with about 43 percent of Ugandans classified as insecure non-poor. During 2005–09, two out of three non-poor fell back into poverty. Reducing poverty further also calls for higher and more inclusive growth. This challenge notwithstanding, Uganda is hosting refugees from South Sudan through a commendable integration model (Box I). 4. The current account deficit narrowed by 1 percentage point to 5.9 percent of GDP in FY2015/16, but is expected to widen again. Imports dropped sharply, mainly due to lower oil price and delayed investments. This more than offset a decline in exports on account of weak 1 Based on the World Bank’s 2016 Uganda Poverty Assessment Report. The poverty rate refers to poverty headcount ratios measured by the international poverty line of 2011 international PPP$1.9 per day. Using Uganda’s national poverty line set over 20 years ago, the poverty rate declined from 38.8 percent in 2003 to 19.7 percent in 2013. 4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page 1 and 2: January 2017 UGANDA IMF Country Rep
Page 3 and 4: 2 The banking sector remains overal
Page 5: UGANDA Approved By Roger Nord (AFR)
Page 9 and 10: UGANDA Figure 1. Uganda: Real Secto
Page 11 and 12: UGANDA Figure 3. Uganda: Fiscal Sec
Page 13 and 14: UGANDA Figure 5. Uganda: Financial
Page 15 and 16: UGANDA PERFORMANCE UNDER THE PSI 6.
Page 17 and 18: UGANDA measures to increase revenue
Page 19 and 20: UGANDA 20. The authorities are addr
Page 21 and 22: UGANDA E. Program Design 29. The au
Page 23 and 24: UGANDA Table 1. Uganda: Selected Ec
Page 25 and 26: UGANDA Table 2b. Uganda: Fiscal Ope
Page 27 and 28: UGANDA Table 3. Uganda: Monetary Ac
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Page 37 and 38: UGANDA MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RI
Page 39 and 40: UGANDA Expenditure - focusing on ef
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Page 49 and 50: UGANDA Attachment II. Technical Mem
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UGANDA Attachment Table II.1. Summa
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December 16, 2016 UGANDA SEVENTH RE
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UGANDA Assistance committed by all
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UGANDA mining and oil resource mana
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UGANDA Programmatic technical assis
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UGANDA STATISTICAL ISSUES (as of No
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UGANDA December 16, 2016 SEVENTH RE
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UGANDA Chart 1. Public Debt (Percen
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UGANDA finances the construction of
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UGANDA longer term bonds to 30:70.
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UGANDA Figure 2. Uganda: Indicators
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Table 2. Uganda: Public Sector Debt
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UGANDA Table 3. Uganda: Sensitivity
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UGANDA

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