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<strong>UGANDA</strong> global and regional demand, including from South Sudan (Figure 2). In all, the overall balance recorded a small surplus. For FY2016/17, the current account deficit is projected to widen again, reflecting higher investments in infrastructure projects. 5. The underlying private sector sentiment appears more muted than the headline numbers suggest. Export weakness, a virtual standstill in private sector credit expansion and problems in the banking sector, domestic government arrears, and arrears from South Sudan to Ugandan businesses who had been active there, are all creating an air of uneasiness and uncertainty. Morever, concerns of a possible drought also affect expectations. Box 1. Uganda’s Humanitarian Response Uganda has become one of the top refugee-hosting countries in Africa. The latest influx comes from conflict-torn South Sudan and about ten other countries. The total number of refugees in Uganda is estimated at over 922,000 (about 2¼ percent of the population), of which about 553,000 come from South Sudan. This has made Uganda one of the top countries hosting refugees in Africa. 1 Since September 2016, a record number of refugees have been arriving—about 2,000 to 3,000 per day—the majority of which are women and children. Top African Countries in Hosting Refugees 1 3.5 Refugees in share of total population (percent) 3 No. of refugees (RHS, thousands) 2.5 2 1.5 900 800 700 600 500 Uganda’s refugee policy provides for integration with the local communities, widely acclaimed as an international best practice. 2 The UNHCR has praised Uganda’s “non-camp” approach in the 2006 Refugee Act as “progressive and forward-thinking.” Under the Refugee and Host Population Empowerment program, refugees are given similar rights as nationals—including the right to work and establish businesses, free schooling and healthcare, freedom of movement, and allocation of agricultural land. By allowing refugees to work, the approach benefits host communities and facilitates deeper and faster refugee transitions. 3 Ugandan authorities work closely with the UNHCR and UN partner agencies, in collaboration with the World Bank, and local and international NGOs. Refugee settlement has been included in Uganda’s National Development Plan II, thereby bringing together the humanitarian and the development aspects, and the government is promoting social service delivery in refugee-hosting areas. The cost of hosting refugees has been largely absorbed within existing programs, but challenges have emerged with the recent surge of refugees. The government’s refugee outlays are partly covered by the allocations for disaster preparedness, which were approved before the recent conflict in South Sudan erupted. The government’s contributions also include the allocation of communal land to newly arrived refugees and the enrollment of child refugees in schools. Other donor-financed programs include: access to training and general support for rural livelihoods, cash-based food assistance, healthcare services, and provision of water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, and other essential non-food items. With an increasing number of refugees, local government service delivery systems are being strained, not least because of shortfalls in donor funding. The continued high influx of refugees is also likely to constrain the size of available agricultural plots for refugees, which potentially threatens their food security and increases the burden placed on humanitarian assistance. 1 0.5 0 Uganda Ethiopia Kenya DRC Chad 1,000 Sources: Amnesty International, UNHCR, IMF World Economic Outlook, and staff calculations. 1 Data are as of end-October 2016 for Uganda and end-2015 for other countries. 400 300 200 100 0 1 See the UNHCR’s Revised South Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan, January-December 2016. 2 See http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/ugandas-progressive-approach-refugee-management. 3 See https://www.wfp.org/news/news-release/new-research-finds-humanitarian-assistance-refugees-boosts-ugandas-economy. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5
<strong>UGANDA</strong> Figure 1. Uganda: Real Sector Developments Growth has been stable at about 5 percent in recent years. Leading indicators are rebounding, suggesting a recovery of economic activity from a year ago. 10 8 6 4 2 0 Contribution to GDP Growth by Sector (percent, y-o-y) 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 Taxes on Products Services Industry Agriculture 65 63 60 58 55 53 50 48 45 Dec-12 Mar-13 Business Tendency Indicators (index) Overall Index Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 65 63 60 58 55 53 50 48 45 After significantly depreciating prior to September 2015, the Shilling has appreciated and stabilized in nominal terms. Effective exchange rates have been broadly stable. 4000 3500 Nominal Exchange Rate (Ugandan Shilling per foreign currency) 40 35 120 Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates (2010 base year, decrease indicates depreciation) 120 3000 30 100 100 2500 25 80 80 2000 1500 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 USH/USD USH/EUR USH/KSH (RHS) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 20 15 60 Real effective exchange rate Average REER (Jan 2010-July 2017) Nominal effective exchange rate 40 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 60 40 Core inflation has returned to the BoU’s target range. Price movements across several CPI sub-groups mirror the overall trend. 12 Inflation Rates* (percent, y-o-y) 12 15 Inflation Rates by Component (percent, y-o-y) 15 10 8 10 8 10 10 6 4 Core Headline 6 4 5 0 5 0 2 0 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 * Dash and dot lines show the outer and inner band of average core inflation target. 2 0 -5 -10 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Health Transport Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 -5 -10 Sources: Bank of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and IMF staff calculations. 6 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page 1 and 2: January 2017 UGANDA IMF Country Rep
Page 3 and 4: 2 The banking sector remains overal
Page 5 and 6: UGANDA Approved By Roger Nord (AFR)
Page 7: UGANDA BACKGROUND AND RECENT DEVELO
Page 11 and 12: UGANDA Figure 3. Uganda: Fiscal Sec
Page 13 and 14: UGANDA Figure 5. Uganda: Financial
Page 15 and 16: UGANDA PERFORMANCE UNDER THE PSI 6.
Page 17 and 18: UGANDA measures to increase revenue
Page 19 and 20: UGANDA 20. The authorities are addr
Page 21 and 22: UGANDA E. Program Design 29. The au
Page 23 and 24: UGANDA Table 1. Uganda: Selected Ec
Page 25 and 26: UGANDA Table 2b. Uganda: Fiscal Ope
Page 27 and 28: UGANDA Table 3. Uganda: Monetary Ac
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Page 33 and 34: UGANDA cessation of operations for
Page 35 and 36: UGANDA production. With inflation f
Page 37 and 38: UGANDA MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RI
Page 39 and 40: UGANDA Expenditure - focusing on ef
Page 41 and 42: UGANDA PFM Act, and be repaid befor
Page 43 and 44: UGANDA competition, financial inclu
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Page 57 and 58: UGANDA Attachment Table II.1. Summa
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December 16, 2016 UGANDA SEVENTH RE
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UGANDA Assistance committed by all
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UGANDA mining and oil resource mana
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UGANDA Programmatic technical assis
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UGANDA STATISTICAL ISSUES (as of No
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UGANDA December 16, 2016 SEVENTH RE
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UGANDA Chart 1. Public Debt (Percen
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UGANDA finances the construction of
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UGANDA longer term bonds to 30:70.
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UGANDA Figure 2. Uganda: Indicators
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Table 2. Uganda: Public Sector Debt
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UGANDA Table 3. Uganda: Sensitivity
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