Bayesian Programming and Learning for Multi-Player Video Games ...

Figure 3.3: Left: probabilities of targets depending on the probability that a target is dying
(P(IDi = true|T = i)) with setup A (no enemy is risking death). Right: same, with setup B
(the foe “Add” is risking death). We can see that the target is shifted from the “Tank” in setup
A to the “Add” in setup B.
Figure 3.4: Left: Probabilities of skills depending on the probability that a target is dying
(P(IDi = true|T = i)) with setup A (no enemy is risking death). Right: same, with setup B
(the foe “Add” is risking death). We can see that the skill switches from “big_heal” in setup A
to “big_dd” in setup B.
As you can see here, when we have the highest probability to attack the main enemy (“Lich”,
when P(IDi = true|T = i) is low), who is a C = tank, we get a high probability for the skill
debuff_armor. We need only cast this skill if the debuff is not already present, so perhaps that
we will cast small_dd instead.
To conclude this example, we ask the full question, what is the distribution on skill and
target:
P(S, T |t t−1 , hp1:n, d1:n, a1:n, ∆hp1:n, id1:n, c1:n, r1:n)
Figure 3.5 shows this distribution with setup A and the probability to target the previous target
(set to “Lich” here) only ≈ 2 times greater than any other character, P(IDi = true|T = i) = 0.9
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