We create the plan, so that you can enjoy the journey Whatever your investments, whether you are planning for your retirement or saving for your children’s future, Ravenscroft offers an array of solutions to meet your needs. Our experienced team will do the hard work, so that you don’t have to. Call us on 01481 729100 Learn more at www.ravenscroftgroup.com Advisory | Discretionary | Execution only | Precious metals | Treasury | Corporate Finance Ravenscroft is a trading name of Ravenscroft Limited (“RL”), which is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission to conduct investment business. RL is also regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission to conduct investment and funds services business. All calls will be recorded and monitored for training and security purposes. For all Ravenscroft connected entities, please refer to www.ravenscroftgroup.com/disclaimer 82 <strong>En</strong> <strong>Voyage</strong> | Aurigny’s Magazine
Business AND I FEEL FINE… BY MARK BOUSFIELD, GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR, RAVENSCROFT OKAY, EYE OF A HURRICANE, LISTEN TO YOURSELF CHURN, WORLD SERVES ITS OWN NEEDS, DON’T MIS-SERVE YOUR OWN NEEDS, It’s the end of the world as we know it, REM, 1987 We seem to spend an awful lot of time writing about history these days, but I don’t think anyone can doubt that we are in momentous times. The question, however, is just how epochal? Given the ludicrously apocalyptic political rhetoric emanating from London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels, you’d be forgiven for thinking World War III or similar, when, really, we’re just talking a bump in the historical road. Newspapers need to sell copies to survive and 24-hour news channels need something other than D-list celebrities to shout about, but just how likely is it that the world as we know it will come to an end in the event of Britain’s departure from the EU? Even, whisper it, should it come to the dreaded “no deal”? Answer: vanishingly remote (the likelihood of any single occurrence is, like it or not, never zero). You would, however, be forgiven for thinking that Britain is going to run out of, take your pick: money, water, fuel, workers and/or fish and chips the day after Brexit. Of course, quite how the world’s fifth (or sixth, depending upon how you calculate these things) largest economy would suddenly cease to be, after leaving a trade pact of which it has been a member for only 45 out of the last 950 years of its nationhood, is an interesting point. It begs the further question of just why we seem to have become so lacking in self-confidence that the prospect of having to survive on our own (along with the other 170-odd countries not in the EU) engenders such fear. Have we all gone a bit soft? It is only natural that something you’ve never experienced gives rise to apprehension, so it is reasonable to expect large swathes of the population (ie anyone under 55) to be nervous about the future. Nevertheless, a modicum of research and the collective wisdom of those who were around before 1973 should, one would hope, provide some small reassurance that the earth will continue to turn. And before you bombard me with the arguments for continued membership of the EU, I do get it. I understand the political arguments for both sides and the obvious disruption occasioned by the UK’s departure from Le Grand Projet. But I’m also mystified by a certain narrowness of perspective when Brexit is set against the backdrop of business opportunity. After all, as global investors who seek to invest on a thematic basis wherever value presents itself, how could we think otherwise? Europe is no longer, despite its pivotal historical contribution to humanity’s cultural, economic and technological progress, the centre of global gravity. The inexorable growth of the emergingmarket middle class – a marginal phenomenon in now-prosperous Europe, where (to quote former Labour politician John Prescott) “we are all middle class now” – points to where the future lies. This is not to say that China and India, among others, will surpass the West in standards of living any time soon. In 2015, China per capita GDP was $7,572, nearly six times less than the UK’s $44,305 – never mind Guernsey’s $55,186. This shows just how misleading it can be when a country of 1.39 billion people is compared with the output of 66 million. But it certainly illustrates how far China has come (incredibly, the GDP per capita figure was a mere $195 in 1980) and how far it can go…just think about how much disposable income will become available if the China figure only doubles. Anyone who regularly reads our view on investing knows that we dislike forecasting simply because of its demonstrable track record of failure. Hence, we were as dismissive of pre-Brexit-vote economic punditry as we are now about post-Brexit doom-mongering. Yes, there will be an adjustment period; and, no, we don’t know what the long-term impact, if any, will be. But what it certainly won’t be...is the end of the world. 83
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