SUSTAINABLE BUS 2-2023

OUTLOOKS
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Amount (€M)
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1000
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and deployment of fuel cells and hydrogen
technologies.
50 percent of the total budget of the FCH
JU/CH JU are contributed by European
Commission. From 2008 to 2013, the EU’s
investment to the budget was about €470
million, which is based on EU’s 7th Research
Framework Programme (FP7). The
EU’s contribution has increased to €665
million between 2014-2020, which is financed
under the Horizon 2020 Framework.
As the successor of FCH JU, CH JU
got support from European Union under
Horizon Europe with €1 billion for the
period 2021-2027, complemented by at
least an equivalent amount of private investment,
raising the total budget to above
€2 billion euro.
JIVE projects for 300 H2 buses
Fuel cell bus deployment projects after 2020
benefit from EU’s investment with more
than €100 million. The joint initiative for
hydrogen vehicles across Europe (JIVE/
JIVE2) contribute most of the FCEBs in Europe
deployed today. JIVE/JIVE2 are targeting
to have about 300 fuel cell buses, while
over 230 fuel cell buses have been delivered
as of end 2021 according to our research.
In addition to FCH JU-funded deployment
projects, some projects under other EU’s
funding frameworks are planning to bring
more FCEBs to Europe as well. The EU’s
CEF-T framework (Connecting Europe
Facility for Transport) also funds the deployment
of fuel cell buses. CEF-T has
financed H2Nodes projects with €14.5
STEADY GROWTH
THE 20-YEAR BUDGET
Total budget
EU’s contribution
2008-2013
Funding framework FP7
2020 2021 2022
60 149 260
Fuel cell buses registered in Europe.
Source: Interact Analysis
2014-2020
Funding framework
Horizon 2020
The budget of FCH JU/CH JU 2008-2027. Source: Interact Analysis
2021-2027
Funding framework
Horizon Europe
million, 50 percent of the total project cost,
which brought the first hydrogen bus fleet
in Latvia. CEF-T is supporting H2Bus
Consortium to deploy 600 fuel cell buses
by investing €40 million. This is the most
ambitious hydrogen bus deployment project
foreseeable to date.
The rollout of FCEBs also benefits from
whole-system investment for hydrogen and
the deployment projects at member state
level funded by local transport authority.
A hydrogen bus fleet will be deployed in
Mallorca as part of Green Hysland project,
which aims to establish hydrogen ecosystem
in Mallorca Spain and gain EU’s investment
of €10 million. Germany is the
most active European country calling for
fuel cell bus deployment. Most of the German
government’s investment in hydrogen
are made under the national innovative
programme for Hydrogen and Fuel cell
(NIP). From 2017-2021, the Federal Ministry
of Transport and Digital Infrastructure
The small emissions of
NOx from a hydrogen
engine may be acceptable
in off-road environments
and long-haul trucks but
perhaps not in cities. Therefore,
it is forecast that the
number of hydrogen engine
buses sold by 2030 will be
lower than the number of
fuel cell buses sold even in
just 2022.
of Germany has invested €700 million in
different hydrogen projects under NIP, half
of which were used to activate the market
deployment. These investments have facilitated
the deployment of more than 90
hydrogen buses in Germany.
A LOOK AT EUROPEAN MAIN FUEL CELL BUS PROJECTS
Fuel cell bus deployment
projects after 2020 benefit
from EU’s investment with
more than €100 million.
JIVE and JIVE2 contribute
most of the FCEBs in Europe
deployed today. JIVE/
JIVE2 are targeting to have
about 300 fuel cell buses,
while over 230 fuel cell
buses have been delivered
as of end 2021.
50 percent of the total
budget of the FCH JU/
CH JU are contributed by
EU Commission. From
2008 to 2013, the EU’s
investment to the budget
was about €470 million.
The EU’s contribution has
increased to €665 million
between 2014-2020, which
is financed under Horizon
2020 Framework. As the
successor of FCH JU, CH
JU got support from European
Union under Horizon
Europe with €1 billion
for the period 2021-2027,
complemented by at least
an equivalent amount of
private investment, raising
the total budget to above
€2 billion euro.
Project Timescale Status Project cost (M€) EU investment (M€) Funding framework Targetting # of FCEBs
CoacHyfied 2021-2025 Ongoing 7.3 5 Horizon 2020 6 coaches
JIVE 2017-2022 Ongoing 102.5 32 Horizon 2020 142 buses
JIVE2 2018-2023 Ongoing 105.5 25 Horizon 2020 152 buses
3Emotion 2015-2022 Ongoing 39 15 FP7 29 buses
CHIC 2010-2016 Closed 82 26 FP7 26 buses
High VLO city 2012-2019 Closed 30.5 13.5 FP7 14 buses
Hytransit 2013-2018 Closed 17.8 7 FP7 6 buses
An overview of FCH JU-funded FCEB market deployment project after 2010. Source: Interact Analysis
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have zero tailpipe
emissions so certainly will have no difficulty
with meeting the Euro VII emission
standards or any other regulations. This goes
some way to explaining the EU’s support
(although there are legitimate questions
about the percentage of hydrogen that is
produced from green sources and hydrogen
being an inefficient use of electrical energy).
H2-powered ICEs?
What about hydrogen combustion engines?
All hydrogen buses so far use a fuel cell.
An alternative technology, hydrogen combustion
engines, does exist but buses are not
the main target market for this. One reason
is that, unlike a fuel cell or battery electric
vehicle, hydrogen engines buses would still
have NOx emissions. The small emissions of
NOx from a hydrogen engine may be acceptable
in off-road environments and long-haul
trucks but perhaps not in cities. Also, hydro-
gen engine vehicles have higher fuel cost
than other alternatives in this market as they
are less efficient. Therefore, it is forecast that
the number of hydrogen engine buses sold
by 2030 will be lower than the number of
fuel cell buses sold even in just 2022.
Fuel cells are the way forward for hydrogen
buses therefore, both in Europe and globally.
While sales levels are lower than BEV
and diesel, fuel cell buses will continue to
take a share of the market in the coming years.
The funding is helping fuel cell buses in
Europe reach levels not seen elsewhere and
the sales of 260 buses in Europe is just the
start, with further growth to come.
Jamie Fox and Marco Wang (Interact
Analysis)
23