Design Report Guided Missile Submarine SSG(X) - AOE - Virginia ...

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SSG(X) Design – VT Team 3 Page 42 3.4.2 Overall Measure of Risk (OMOR) In the submarine design process, there has to be a quantitative way to evaluate the technology risk of developing the ship. The OMOR calculates a quantitative measure of risk based on the technologies selected for the submarine. The technology risks associated with SSG(X) include performance, scheduling, and cost risks. Performance risk is the chance that the system will not perform as predicted. Cost risk is the chance that the cost will be significantly more than expected. Schedule risk is the chance that a technology will not be ready in time for the application as planned. The process for performing an OMOR calculation begins with identifying the risk events associated with each of the design variables, required capabilities, schedule, and cost. The next step is to calculate the risk associated with each event. Table 27 and expert opinion estimate the probability (Pi) that the event will occur. Next, Table 28 and expert opinion estimate the consequence of that event occurring. To calculate the risk for each event (Ri), multiply the probability by the consequence. Finally, pair-wise comparison is used to calculate the OMOR hierarchy weights and the OMOR is calculated in the risk module using the following equation: OMOR = W ∑ PC ∑ P C ∑ P C i i j j k k i j k perf + Wcos t + Wsched ∑( Pi Ci ) max ∑( PjC j ) max ∑( Pk Ck ) max i j k The overall weight of the performance risk is 0.5, the weight of the cost risk is 0.3, and the weight of the scheduling risk is 0.2. SWBS Risk Type Related DV # DV Options 2 Performance DV6 5-9 PSYS 2 Schedule DV6 5-9 PSYS 2 Cost DV6 5-9 PSYS Table 26 - Risk Register 2 Performance DV7 1 Prop Type 2 Schedule DV7 1 Prop Type 2 Cost DV7 1 Prop Type 3 Performance DV8 1 Battery Type 3 Schedule DV8 1 Battery Type 3 Cost DV8 1 Battery Type 3 Performance DV8 3 Battery Type 3 Schedule DV8 3 Battery Type DV Description Risk Event Ei Event # Pi Ci Ri PEM does not meet performance TLRs PEM schedule delays impact program PEM development and acquisition cost overruns RDP does not meet performance TLRs RDP schedule delays impact program RDP development and acquisition cost overruns NiCd Batteries do not meet performance TLRs NiCd Batteries' schedule delays impact program NiCd Battery development and acquisition cost overruns Zebra batteries do not meet performance TLRs Zebra batteries schedule delays impact program 1 0.5 0.7 0.35 2 0.4 0.8 0.32 3 0.5 0.3 0.15 4 0.4 0.8 0.32 5 0.4 0.5 0.2 6 0.6 0.3 0.18 7 0.3 0.7 0.21 8 0.3 0.2 0.06 9 0.3 0.2 0.06 10 0.3 0.7 0.21 11 0.3 0.2 0.06
SSG(X) Design – VT Team 3 Page 43 3 Cost DV8 3 Battery Type 4 Performance DV13 0.5 4 Schedule DV13 0.5 4 Cost DV13 0.5 Manning reduction Manning reduction Manning reduction 4 Performance DV14 1 Sonar 4 Schedule DV14 1 Sonar 4 Cost DV14 1 Sonar 4 Performance DV14 4 Sonar 4 Schedule DV14 4 Sonar 4 Cost DV14 4 Sonar Zebra battery may be very expensive compared to alternatives Increased automation and reduced manning may not work Increased automation and reduced manning may cause delays Increased automation and reduced manning may have cost overruns LWWAA Does not meet performance TLRs LWWAA Schedule delays impact program LWWAA Development and acquisition cost overruns SUBTICS/ Thales Suite does not meet performance TLRs SUBTICS/ Thales Suite schedule delays impact program SUBTICS/ Thales Suite development and acquisition cost overruns Table 27 - Event Probability Estimate Probability What is the Likelihood the Risk Event Will Occur? 0.1 Remote 0.3 Unlikely 0.5 Likely 0.7 Highly likely 0.9 Near Certain 12 0.5 0.5 0.25 13 0.6 0.6 0.36 14 0.5 0.3 0.15 15 0.5 0.5 0.25 16 0.3 0.5 0.15 17 0.3 0.3 0.09 18 0.3 0.3 0.09 19 0.3 0.7 0.21 20 0.3 0.5 0.15 21 0.1 0.2 0.02 Consequence Table 28 - Event Consequence Estimate Given the Risk is Realized, What Is the Magnitude of the Impact? Level Performance Schedule Cost 0.1 Minimal or no impact Minimal or no impact Minimal or no impact 0.3 Acceptable with some reduction in margin Additional resources required; able to meet need dates 10%
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Design Report Guided Missile Submarine SSG(X) - AOE - Virginia ...

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