Design Report Guided Missile Submarine SSG(X) - AOE - Virginia ...

SSG(X) Design – VT Team 3 Page 95
4.11.2 Risk Analysis
The selected baseline design for SSG(X) is a high risk alternative with an OMOR equal to 0.84. From the
baseline, the high risk items are primarily the PEM fuel cell, automation manning factor and Zebra batteries
performance risk. The largest concern with risk is the performance of these systems. For all of these systems the
technology is currently available somewhere; therefore, the cost and schedule is less of an issue. The risk mostly
comes from the United States lack of experience with these technologies. These systems will require extensive
testing to determine their true performance capabilities. Specifically the PEM fuel cells are currently on German
U212/214 boats and have great potential. The zebra batteries, although never used by the United States Navy, exist
on Royal Navy submarines. The SSG(X) manning coefficient is 0.54 which is almost as much automation as
allowable. The decrease in manning and increase in automation always increases risk.
Risk associated with each of these options is controlled by setting production for 2015. This 10 year time period
allows for further testing and development of all the systems that will be onboard. The efficiency and performance
of the PEM and Zebra batteries will increase in that time period and automation will be made much more effective,
efficient, and reliable. A ten year period will allow a crew of non-nuclear submariners to be very highly trained and
well educated to deal with the new systems.