227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia

health services. This is because there are not
proper resources, motivation and management to
adopt new practices and products.
Before any significant progress can be expected
the present situation must be analysed.
The obvious weaknesses must be openly recognised
and the necessary strategic choices must
be made. An understanding of the operation of
the health care system is still at a very low level.
Now the change due to the aging will take place
within the next 10 years. That is fast compared
to the time constants involved in the system.
The institutional public health care will react
slowly so the fastest and probably the most cost
effective operations can be made outside the institutions.
The health continuum concept includes
the tight relationship between the operations
to support a healthy life style and the costs
of institutional health care. The institutional care
will be replaced by home care and special senior
housing with tailored services. This trend is visible
for example in the USA as shown in Figure
4.16.
Preventive operations will be more and more important.
This situation generates some good business
opportunities: Health food manufacturers,
48
fitness clubs, home care monitors, ubiquitous
systems, peer group organizers and various
co-operatives may find new concepts which may
be marketed internationally.
One important pioneer enterprise is already going
on in Finland. This is the senior house “Loppukiri”,
where the inhabitants by themselves take
care of all the necessary daily tasks. The workload
is divided according to the ability of each individual.
Help from outsiders is used only in such
tasks which exceeds the capabilities of the inhabitants.
The funding of the research and development
projects should depend on how well they can
expect to support the health continuum concept.
The scientific basis of projects should be
sound and the research is more related on implementation
and demonstration of cost effectiveness.
The problem has been recognised and some operations
have already been started. One new approach
which has been raised some positive expectations
is the initiative to collect strategic
groups around selected segments of the Finnish
industry. The concept is still vague and the coop-
Figure 4.16. Development in Washington, USA. State-supported nursing home beds
have not kept pace with the growth of the population aged 85 and above. However,
increasingly the elderly population is being served by in-home and community-based
programs. Source: Access Washington