227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia

government should improve environment for
business startups (54 %) as well as human resources
development and education (50 %).
Other important policy measures were considered
to be strengthening industry-academic government
and interdisciplinary collaboration (46
%) and internationalization of R&D activities (44
%). Tightened or new regulations of support
through taxation, subsidies and procurement
were not considered relevant policy measures for
this theme.
Statements
This chapter examines main statements, which
can be implemented in a short period of time or
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.
Additionally statements, which have
had a short and long gap between technical realization
and social application, are examined. The
focus is on medians but dispersions are also
partly examined.
Systems capable of identifying online content
harmful to young people was a statement, which
was considered to be soonest socially applied
(2010). Other statements which were considered
to be implemented and socially applied within the
next 5 years were media devices at home, which
can be controlled through single user interface
(2012) and a widely application of different 2 D
barcodes of suchlike technologies which can be
read by a mobile phone or other mobile terminals
(2013).
According to the respondents, long-term challenges
were e.g. technologies allowing computers
to electrically and magnetically read information
in the human brain. This was not thought to
be realized before 2036, which was beyond the
timeline of the focus of the Consumers, media
and digital convergence – theme. Other bigger issues
with a similar timeline were other statements
related to the human brain such as “Discovery of
a mechanism for the human brain to directly receive
a greater amount of information faster
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by means of systems other than the visual (text)
and auditory (sound) systems” and “An external
brain function system that is wearable and operable
through a natural interface and can store general
knowledge like dictionaries as well as a large
amount of personal knowledge, experience, and
information to extend and enhance the brain’s
memory function.”.
Statements, which had a short gap between technical
realization and social application were
among others systems capable of identifying online
content harmful to young people (technical
2010, social 2012) and technologies that allow
utilizing networked, but heterogeneous, global
information sources like an encyclopaedias
(technical 2012, social 2014). Additionally, portable
conservation devices that allow people with
disabilities to convert their thought into speech
was considered quickly socially applicable after
its technical realization but this was though considered
to be implemented only in 2020-22.
Several statements had a long gap between their
technical realization and social application. This
means that technology might even be already
available but its wider application among society
takes time. Such cases could be found in each
area. The difference between the technical realization
and the social application of the statement
“Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority
of printed books in fiction” was particularly
significant with a 16 year gap. Respondents did
not also believe that half of working people
would work remotely from home or other places
using virtual technologies in the coming years despite
that the median of its technical realization is
2010. Respondents considered its social application
to realize only 10 years later. Another case of
slow social application compared to its possibility
of technical realization is artificial intelligence
chips, which would be capable of understanding
human feelings from facial expression.
According to respondents, its technical realization
could be possible in 2014 but social realization
not until 2022.