The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

98 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
to climate change based on assumptions described in
“Notes on report methodology.” Centre for Research on
the Epidemiology of Disasters Database, (2009).
19. Barnett, J. and Adger, N. (2001): “Climate dangers and
Atoll countries.” Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, Working Paper 9. http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/
publications/working_papers/wp9.pdf.
20. Comprehensive regional and global assessment
of mortality and disability conducted by the World
Health Organization. It can be viewed as the gap
between current health status and an ideal situation in
which everyone lives into old age free of disease and
disability. Causes of the gap are premature mortality,
disability and exposure to certain risk factors that
contribute to illness, such as climate change. Please
refer to “Notes on report methodology C.”
21. WHO. (2004): “The global burden of disease: 2004
update.” World Health Organization Health statistics
and health information systems. http://www.who.
int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/2004_report_
update/en/index.html.
22. Based on and adapted from CRED and ISDR (2008),
McMichael, A.J., et al (2004) and Kron, W. (2009).
Please see “Notes on report methodology” to
describe the estimation in more detail.
23. A 320% increase in weather related disasters today
is assumed based on Webster, M., et al. (2008). A
50% climate change attribution from weather related
disasters is assumed in 2030. Webster, M., et al.
(2008): “The Humanitarian Costs of Climate Change.”
Feinstein International Center, December, p.19.
24. Total estimate consists of the total number of people
affected by gradual environmental degradation and
weather-related disasters attributable to climate
change. Please see “Notes on report methodology” to
describe the estimation in more detail.
25. The total number of people with diabetes is projected
to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030.
International Diabetes Federation. (2009). “Diabetes
Prevalence.” International Diabetes Federation.
http://www.idf.org/home/index.cfm?node=264 and
Wild, S., et al. (2004): “Global prevalence of diabetes”.
Diabetes Care, Volume 27, Number 5, May. http://
www.who.int/diabetes/facts/en/diabcare0504.pdf.
26. For deaths due to weather related disasters, this
assumes a 160% increase in the number of deaths
for a 320% increase in the number of disasters. For
deaths due to gradual environmental degradation see
WHO. (2004): “The global burden of disease: 2004
update.” World Health Organization Health statistics
and health information systems, p.56.
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_
disease/2004_report_update/en/index.html
27. WHO (2004) estimated that 519,000 people died from
breast cancer in 2004.
28. Webster, M., et al. (2008): “The Humanitarian Costs
of Climate Change.” Feinstein International Center,
December, p.19.
29. This value is obtained applying a 50% attribution of
climate change, which is based on the difference in
the trend increase in the frequency of weather related
disasters and geophysical disasters. We use Munich
Re (2009) trend calculations and extrapolate the linear
trend to 2030. The calculation is explained in “Notes
on report methodology”.
30. Parry, M., Rosenzweig, C., and Livermore, M. (2005):
“Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of
Hunger.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society, 360, 2125-2138.
31. WHO. (2008): “Protecting Health From Climate
Change”. The World Health Organization-World
Health Day 2008. http://www.who.int/world-healthday/toolkit/report_web.pdf.
32. Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C., and Jevrejeva, S. (2009):
“Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected
temperatures 200 to 2100 AD.” Climate Dynamics,
10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, January 6, p.1. and
UFL. (2009): “A White Paper on the Impacts of Climate
Change on Drylands.” Department of Geography-
University of Florida, p.3.
http://www.clas.ufl.edu/lueci/southworth/Climate-
Change-Class/chien/CWKAO_White%20paper1.pdf.