The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

The human impact of climate change – Already serious today 15
Vulnerability assessment
More than one third of the world’s population are physically vulnerable to climate change 35
Currently over 2.8 billion people live in areas of the world prone to more than one type of
the physical manifestations of climate change: floods, storms, droughts, sea level rise. Physical
vulnerability to climate change is used to mean that an individual is vulnerable if they face a medium
to high risk of experiencing at least two of these events. The figure below shows the areas which are
most physically vulnerable to climate change. (In Section 3 below, please note that, when secondary
socio-economic factors are included, over 4 billion people could be considered as vulnerable to
climate change and, of these, over half a billion as extremely vulnerable.)
Those most vulnerable live in the semi-arid dry land belt countries, sub-Saharan Africa, South and
Southeast Asia, Latin America, Small island developing states and the Arctic
People living in low-lying areas, the semi-arid dry land belt along the Sahel that separates
Africa’s arid north from more fertile areas, easily flooded regions on the Equator, and glacier
regions are most likely to be affected. The following countries and regions are considered the most
vulnerable to climate change:
• The semi-arid dry land belt countries because of overall vulnerability to droughts from the
Sahara/Sahel to the Middle East and Central Asia. (The most affected countries include Niger,
Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, and Iran, all the way to Western/Northern China.)
• Sub-Saharan Africa because of vulnerability to droughts and floods. (The most affected
countries include Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, Mozambique, and South Africa.)
• South and Southeast Asia because of the melting Himalayan ice sheets, droughts, floods and
storms. (The most affected countries include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, southern and eastern
China, Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia.)
• Latin America and parts of the US because of water shortages and floods. (The most affected
countries include Mexico, Andean countries like Peru and Brazil.)
• Small island developing states because of sea level rise and cyclones. (The most affected
countries include the Comoros islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Maldives and Haiti.)
• The Arctic region because of the melting of ice caps.
The region at most immediate risk of droughts and floods is sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts
are most probable in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia and Tanzania, while Malawi,
Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan and Tanzania are considered especially prone to floods.
Flooding is also likely in South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal). The most storm-prone
areas are along the coasts of East Africa (Mozambique, Madagascar) and South Asia (Bangladesh)
as well as along the Southeastern and central areas of the US. 36,37