The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

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14 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis Global warming is expected to increasingly impact food security, water availability and quality, and exact a toll on public health, spurring chronic disease, malaria prevalence, and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. 16,30,31 Rising sea levels, which affect relatively few people today, are expected to impact large populations in the future and desertification is projected to accelerate with 40 percent of the earth’s land becoming dry or semi-arid regions 32 which is detrimental given that arid and semi-arid climates comprise over one quarter of the land area of earth. 33 Glaciers will continue to melt at an ever accelerating pace. Changes in local rainfall and river run-off patterns are expected to trigger increased water supply in high latitudes but reduced amounts in sub-tropical latitudes. About 310 million people could be seriously affected by these changes due to climate change by the 2030. 34 Figure 2 below shows the strong increase in the number of seriously affected and deaths due to climate change over the next 20 years. Figure 2 — The impact of climate change is accelerating over the next 20 years Source: WHO. (2004): “The global burden of disease: 2004 update.”; McMichael, A.J., et al (2004): “Chapter 20: Global Climate Change” in Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. WHO; CRED database; Webster, M., et al. (2008): “The Humanitarian Costs of Climate Change.” Feinstein International Center; Munich Re; Dalberg analysis
The human impact of climate change – Already serious today 15 Vulnerability assessment More than one third of the world’s population are physically vulnerable to climate change 35 Currently over 2.8 billion people live in areas of the world prone to more than one type of the physical manifestations of climate change: floods, storms, droughts, sea level rise. Physical vulnerability to climate change is used to mean that an individual is vulnerable if they face a medium to high risk of experiencing at least two of these events. The figure below shows the areas which are most physically vulnerable to climate change. (In Section 3 below, please note that, when secondary socio-economic factors are included, over 4 billion people could be considered as vulnerable to climate change and, of these, over half a billion as extremely vulnerable.) Those most vulnerable live in the semi-arid dry land belt countries, sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America, Small island developing states and the Arctic People living in low-lying areas, the semi-arid dry land belt along the Sahel that separates Africa’s arid north from more fertile areas, easily flooded regions on the Equator, and glacier regions are most likely to be affected. The following countries and regions are considered the most vulnerable to climate change: • The semi-arid dry land belt countries because of overall vulnerability to droughts from the Sahara/Sahel to the Middle East and Central Asia. (The most affected countries include Niger, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, and Iran, all the way to Western/Northern China.) • Sub-Saharan Africa because of vulnerability to droughts and floods. (The most affected countries include Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, Mozambique, and South Africa.) • South and Southeast Asia because of the melting Himalayan ice sheets, droughts, floods and storms. (The most affected countries include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, southern and eastern China, Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia.) • Latin America and parts of the US because of water shortages and floods. (The most affected countries include Mexico, Andean countries like Peru and Brazil.) • Small island developing states because of sea level rise and cyclones. (The most affected countries include the Comoros islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Maldives and Haiti.) • The Arctic region because of the melting of ice caps. The region at most immediate risk of droughts and floods is sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts are most probable in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia and Tanzania, while Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan and Tanzania are considered especially prone to floods. Flooding is also likely in South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal). The most storm-prone areas are along the coasts of East Africa (Mozambique, Madagascar) and South Asia (Bangladesh) as well as along the Southeastern and central areas of the US. 36,37
Page 1: Human Impact Report Climate Change
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Climate change is here. It has a hu
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The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

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