The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

100 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
56. Based on the geographical representation in the Stern
model. The model does not give results for 2030. We use
the mean value for 2020 and project it linearly to 203
57. CIA World Factbook Database, (2007).
58. European Commission. (2008): “Financial Programming
and Budget.” European Commission. http://ec.europa.
eu/budget/budget_detail/current_year_en.htm.
59. Based on updated Stern Report PAGE 2002 model,
the mean value is 1.3 trillion. The range of the 90%
confidence interval is US $300 to US $3450 billion. See
“Notes on report methodology D.” for further description.
60. Inman, M. (2008). “Carbon is forever”. Nature
Reports Climate Change. http://www.nature.com/
climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html
61. Based on updated Stern Report PAGE 2002 model —
the model calculates a SCC of $10 - $115, with a mean
value of $45 per tonne of CO2. See “Notes on report
methodology D.” for further description.
62. Nicholls, R.J., et al. (2007): “Coastal systems and
low-lying areas.” Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptations and Vulnerability, Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
M.L. Parry, et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, Chapter 6 Box 6.4.
63. Wilbanks, T.J., et al. (2007) “Industry, settlement
and society.” Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptations and Vulnerability, Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
M.L. Parry, et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, Chapter 7 Box 7.4.
64. Munich Re Statistics, (2009).
65. Bernstein, L., et al. (2007). “Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report — Summary for Policymakers.”
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
66. Parry, M.L. (2007): “The impacts of climate change
for crop yields, global food supply and risk of hunger.”
ICRISAT, December, Volume 4, Issue 1, p.12.
http://www.icrisat.cgiar.org/Journal/SpecialProject/
sp14.pdf.
67. Easterling, W.E., et al. (2007): “Food, fibre and
forest products.” Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptations and Vulnerability, Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
M.L. Parry, et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 273-313.
68. Erda, L., et al. (2009): “Climate change and food
security in China.” The Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Science and Greenpeace China.
69. Fischer, G., et al. (2005): “Socio-economic and
climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated
assessment, 1990-2080.” Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society, 360, 2067-2083, p2079.
70. Assumes global population equals 6.76 billion.
71. Diouf, J. (2009): “Food Security for All.” Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations High-
Level Meeting, January 26-27, Madrid. http://www.fao.
org/english/dg/2009/2627january2009.html.
72. World Food Programme estimates that 963 million are
hungry today; 907 million of which live in developing
nations, (565 million are in Asia and the Pacific, 230
million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 58.4 million in Latin
America and the Caribbean, 41.6 million in the Near
East and North Africa, etc).
73. WFP. (2009): “Who are the hungry?” World Food
Programme. http://www.wfp.org/hunger/who-are.
74. IFPRI (2004): “Ending hunger in Africa prospects for
the small farmer.” International Food Policy Research
Institute. http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/ib/ib16.pdf.
75. Please refer to “Notes on report methodology C.”
For similar results, also see: Easterling, W.E., et al.
(2007): “Food, fibre and forest products.” Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, M.L. Parry, et al. Eds., Cambridge