The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

Case Study
56 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
Climate change in the dry land belt —
An ecological time bomb for human
security in the Middle East
The dry land belt encompasses 41 percent of the world’s landmass including the Sahara, the
Middle East and Central Asia, and is to home over 2.3 billion people. 167,177 The combination of a
fragile ecosystem, environmental degradation, scarce water supply and high population growth rates
creates a poverty trap and an enormous threat to human welfare. 177 The Middle East is already a
politically volatile region where the demand for water is fast outstripping diminishing supplies. Water
scarcity due to climate change could heighten tensions between countries sharing water resources.
It could also increase internal instability as it becomes harder for governments to provide for their
people — one more area of potential conflict for extremists to exploit.
Lebanon is a country whose history is heavy with conflict. Today, long-simmering tensions
surround the question of how to equitably divide one its most precious natural treasures: its water.
In the Bekaa Valley, an historic feud over irrigation and water diversion is being re-ignited between
Muslim and Christian families. 178,179 Nationwide, demand for water is expected to increase by over
80 percent in the next fifteen years and population is projected to grow from 4 to 7.6 million. 179
On top of this, climate change, including expected rises in summer temperatures of 1.2 degrees
centigrade 179 are projected to boost irrigation needs by over 18 percent. 180 The energy and water
ministry is currently implementing a 10-year water strategy aimed at sustainable water resource
management. Nonetheless, experts warn that where there is a history of conflict, climatic changes
can become a trigger for renewed hostilities.
Key Sources: Integrated Regional Information Networks, Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute and NASA